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TRENDS Down CZ, Down 5,SX, Down 11, WZ, Down 7

September 24, 2020 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down! CZ, -$.0550; SX, -$.1275; WZ, -$.0625; KWZ, -$.05. Dalian Jan C & SB off $.11 & $14 ½ 

·       What caught my eye: China blames surging corn prices on speculation/hoarding; Dalian HAS lost $.20 cents the past two days, falling to $9.06 ½ overnight.  Ag Minister says will increase corn imports where necessary . . . does this mean end of U.S. buying?  

·       Global equities slip lower as many investors throw in the towel on the dwindling prospects of another stimulus

  • Asia—Decidedly lower:  Nikkei, -.1.11%; Shanghai, -1.72%; Hang Seng, -1.82%
  • EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.07%; FTSE, -0.47%; CAC, -0.20%
  • WALL STREET: A mostly positive start? –DOW futures, +30; S&P, +3; NAS, -20.25
  • EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.01 @ $39.92Gold: -$12.40 $1,856; Mar $ Index, +.157 @ 94.555
  • Weather: the U.S. Midwest will be remain mostly dry for the rest of the week, which will continue to benefit corn and soybean harvest, as well as winter wheat planting.  A system will move across the eastern half of the country over the weekend, and may bring some rainfall from the remnant of Tropical Depression Beta.  This would produce scattered showers east of the Mississippi River.  Temperatures are forecast to be above to well above normal in most areas through Sunday 
  • CZ, dn $.0550 @ $3.63; CH, dn $.0550 @ $3.72.  Slow news day, funds sell 5 K                
  • SX, dn $.1275 @ $10.0175; SF, dn $.1250 @ $10.0625. Funds sold 4 K SB; 10 BO; bot 5 SBM. Board crush: $0.98 (V/X), +5; LY, $0.77
  • WX, dn $.0625 @ $5.4275; WH, dn $.0650 @ $5.5050.  Market consolidates with the funds selling 6 K                   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 41 – 71 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       Weather: a stronger system may push through the U.S. Corn Belt early next week; moderate rainfall and rapidly falling temperatures associated with the system may possibly slow corn harvest

·       Ethanol grind: total of 906,000 barrels/day for the week ending Sep. 18—down 20 thousand (2.2%) versus last week and 3.9% lower compared to last year’s 943,000

·       Weather: dry conditions this week are likely to favor corn harvest in Ukraine; showers may return during the weekend

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ​;Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 73- 110 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, 0 - 100 K MT for 19/20 and 200 - 400 for 20/21; soyoil, 0 - 10 for 19/20 and 0 - 30 for 20/21  

·       Weather: a stronger system may push through the U.S. Corn Belt early next week; moderate rainfall and rapidly falling temperatures associated with the system may possibly slow soybean harvest

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 9 - 22 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       Weather: moderate/heavy rain expected Thu. night through the weekend across wheat in central & south Argentina

ENERGY

·       +/-?  CLX20, -$0.01 @ $39.92; EBX, +$0.04 $41.1EBX-QCLX, +0.03RBX, -.0038NGX, +.025HOX, .0000

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0075 weaker at $1.4025; Basis, all firmer: NYC, +$.0050 @ +$.07; Gulf, +.0075 @ +$.0825; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.0375; Tampa, +$.0075 @ +$.1325; LA, +$.0075 @ +$.1025

·       Ethanol RIN values, down: 2019’s, -3.625 @ 44 ¼ - 45 ½; 2020’s: -2.125 @ 46 ¼ -47 ½                           &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                       

&mi​ddot;       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading $.0022 lower this morning at -$.2359 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &nb​sp;         

  • Choice boxed beef firmed $0.43 on Wednesday to $215.87, and is up $0.49 versus last week 
  • Est. for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: Sep. 1 on feed, 103.4%; Placed in Aug, 105.9%; Marketed in Aug, 96.6%
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $0.21 on Wed. to $88.15, and is up $5.58 compared to a week ago
  • Est. for today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report: All hogs/pigs, 100.1%;  Kept for Breeding, 97.5%; Kept for Market, 100.6%

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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