HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0050; SN, -$.0050; WN, -$.0575; KWN, -$.1075.  Dely: SBM, 0; BO, 0; RR, 59; C, 67; HRW, 0

·       What caught my eye: Gains in corn planting were quite impressive versus trade expectations.  However, soybeans at 23% complete is a new record for the 3^rd of May and 12 points ahead of average 

·       COVID-19 Lockdown restrictions ease in Europe & U.S.  Asia: Firm-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, +1.08%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.46%; FTSE, +1.21%; CAC, +1.54%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up--DOW, +217; S&P, +24; NAS, +78.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$2.11 @ $22.50; Gold: -$8.50 @ $1,705; Sep $ Index, +0.317 @ 99.490

·       T-storm Weather®: a very cool period begins today in the U.S. Corn Belt as maximums in the 50s-60s coincide with minimums in the 30s-40s, including near-freezing minimums more than once, though only pockets of showers are expected (not widespread and organized rains).  Coolness likely retreats May 13-14, allowing a much warmer period to unfold as maximum reach the 70s-80s, setting the stage for a stormy period as waves of energy interact with a warm and muggy air mass

• CN, up $.0050 @ $3.16; CU, dn $.0025 @ $3.2225.  Funds were sellers of 7 K –rapid planting expected and, China       
• SN, dn $.0050 @ $8.36; SQ, dn $.01 @ $8.3750.  Funds sold 7 K SB, 6 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board crush: $0.86 (N/N), -2; LY, $1.15
• WN, dn $.0575 @ $5.1375; WU, dn $.0525 @ $5.1675.  The funds began the week buying 5 K          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of May 3 at 51% vs. 21% last year and the 5-year average of 39%;  sorghum planting progress estimated at 22% vs. 21% last year and the 5-year average of 26%

·       T-storm Weather®: temps remain 7°F to 14°F below normal for one week across & adjacent the Corn Belt, including near-freezing lows; some showers accompany coldness, but most areas will be drier than normal with less than 0.50”

·       ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 19/20 pegged at 2.615 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.092 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through today; a round of thunderstorms follows Wed. south, producing scattered 0.25”-0.50”, but coverage & amounts are reduced to the north of Mato Grosso do Sul & Paraná

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of May 3 at 23% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year average of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: temps remain 7°F to 14°F below normal for one week across & adjacent the Corn Belt, including near-freezing lows; some showers accompany coldness, but most areas will be drier than normal with less than 0.50”

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 19/20 pegged at 0.543 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.481 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: some showers fall across U.S. HRW wheat Thu., but most rain will be limited to / near central OK. Some additional rain is plausible Sun. and/or Mon., but best rain chances most likely hold off until May 13-14 forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent up 1% to 55%; model pegs ‘20 crop @ 1.200 bbu; +1 mbu v last week

ENERGY

·       Up: CLM20, +$2.11 @ $22.50; EBN, +$2.09 @ $29.29; EBN-QCLN, +$0.10; RBM, +.0449; NGM, +.114; HOM, +.0626

·       Chicago ethanol was $.02625 higher on Monday at $1.00/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.00375 @ +$.0525; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.07; Dallas, -$.00625 @ +$.0950; Tampa, +$.00375 @ +$.1950; LA, +$.00125 @ +$.16750

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker: 2018’s, -0.50 @ 22 -24; 2019’s, -0.625 @ 31 ¼ -32; 2020’s: -.50 @ 36 -36 ½                                   &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                      

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse narrowed again, losing $.0552 yesterday to $.1925/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &nbs​p;                    

• Choice boxed beef soared $32.60 on Monday to $410.05, and is up $98.21 versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.84 v. last week at $98.53/cwt, but is dn $25.23 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 87-cents on Mon. to $106.39, & is $23.70 higher versus last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $37.72/cwt vs. last week’s $31.13, last month’s $33.22 & last year’s $66.97

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®