Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.03; SN, 0$.05; WN, -$.0575; KWN, -$.0650.  Dely: SBM, 22; BO, 1,032; RR, 65; C, 221; HRW, 9

·       What caught my eye: Corn export demand picking up . . . sales the past month of 48 mbu/week are 20 mbu greater than a year ago and nearly 40% above the seasonal average; noticeable increase in both Far East as well as Western Hemisphere buying  

·       Mayday—earnings uncertainty; Trump threatens China; overseas mostly closed. Asia: Down-- Nikkei, -2.84%; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, Closed; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, Closed; FTSE, -2.18; CAC, Closed.  WALL STREET: Futures, Weaker--DOW, -414; S&P, -53; NAS, -207.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$0.21 @ $18.63; Gold: -$10.40 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, -0.113 @ 98.945

·       T-storm Weather®: most areas are dry today-Sat.  A fast-moving system then impacts southern half of Corn Belt Sun., producing 0.25”-0.75”.  Another system & cold front immediately follow Mon.-Tue., producing 0.33”-0.67” across much wider area, bringing some rain to driest northern areas.  Thereafter, an unseasonably cool period begins & lasts 5-7 days, shifting deep humidity for heavy rain outside the region, & allowing weak systems to produce pockets of showers in varying areas each day over May 6-12

• CN, dn $.03 @ $3.17; CU, dn $.03 @ $3.2350.  Funds buy 8 K, China buying perhaps and dryness in Brazil     
• SN, dn $.05 @ $8.5025; SQ, dn $.05 @ $8.5075.  Funds bot 9 K SB, 8 K SBM, 5 K SBO. Board crush: $0.75 (K/K), 0; LY, $1.13
• WN, dn $.0575 @ $5.1850; WU, dn $.0550 @ $5.2250.  Funds buy 5 K in a volatile day of trading        

CORN/SORGHUM

·&​nbsp;      T-storm Weather®: pockets of rain and future coolness likely leave conditions for corn planting challenging over the next 10 days in IL, IN, MI, OH, and the Delta, while rains are much less frequent elsewhere

·       U.S. corn export sales of 53.4 mbu for 19/20 delivery for week ending April 23 were up 87% from last week and 19% versus the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 553 mbu are up 25% versus 441 mbu last year

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs Argentina corn harvest at 36.7%.  Prior to rain, harvest had expanded into early-planted plots in the center & south.  Harvest about to start in late-planted & second crop corn; prod. est. is 50.0 MMT

·       Consultant: Argentina’s nationwide corn yields should continue to decline as the harvest progresses

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     &nb​sp; T-storm Weather®: pockets of rain and future coolness likely leave conditions for soybean planting challenging over the next 10 days in IL, IN, MI, OH, and the Delta, while rains are much less frequent elsewhere

·       Despite recent rain, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs Argentina soybean harvest at 68.2%.  Production is estimated at 49.5 MMT, unchanged from last week

·       Unshipped 19/20 U.S. HRW wheat export sales for the week ending April 23 were 57 mbu, down 29% vs. last year

·       T-storm Weather®: 69% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier than normal the last 30 days—highest coverage in late-April in more than 6 years; 0.50”-1.00” of rain falls over the next two weeks, though OK & TX likely stay dry for at least a week

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLM20, -$0.21 @ $18.63; EBN, -$0.36 @ $26.14; EBN-QCLN, +$0.19; RBM, 0.0324; NGM, +.031; HOM, -.0109

·   ​    Chicago ethanol fel $.04 Thursday to $.9750/gallon; basis, firmer:  NYC, +$.0350 @ -$.0050; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.0650; Dallas, +$.0150 @ +$.11; Tampa, +$.02 @ +$.18; LA, +$.04 @ +$.1650

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +1.75 @ 31 ½ -32 ½; 2020’s: +0.25 @ 36 ½ -37                         &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                                                 ​;                        ​        

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol spread widended $.0734 on Thursday to $.3212/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    ​   

• Choice​ boxed beef was $10.18 higher on Thursday at $367.56, and is up $83.27 versus a week ago
• A handful of cash cattle traded on Thursday in the South at around $95 to $96
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $9.69 on Thu. to $99.03, & is $23.14 higher versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index was $2.44 higher on Thu. at $54.70.  May futures gained $2.850 and are $4.425 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®