HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down!  CK, -$.0450; SK, -$.12; WK, -$.0975; KWK, -$.0725.  Del’y: SBM, 62; SBO, 26; RR, 5; C, 106; SB, 220 

·       What caught my eye: Given the potential impact on the U.S. economy, it seems that even a somewhat brief pull-back due to coronavirus could boost the 20/21 corn carry-out to over 3 bbu fairly readily

·       Markets fear coronavirus economic impact.  Asia: Lower: Nikkei, -4.41%; Shanghai, -1.52%; Hang Seng, -3.66%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -5.56%; FTSE, -5.37%; CAC, -5.49%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Painfully lower--DOW, -1,189; S&P, -130.75; NAS, -388.75.  EXTERNALS: April crude, -$1.82 @ $31.16; Gold: -$6.10 @ $1,636; Mar $ Index, +.298 @ 96.790

• T-storm Weather®: heavy thunderstorms broke dryness on soybeans in Buenos Aires yesterday, and several more rains affect Argentina this weekend, and next week as the flash drought and two-week heat wave quickly end.  Drying second-crop corn in Brazil also turns wetter with time — starting over the next several days on the northern ~60% as tropical waves pass, but not for another week on the southern ~40% where heat continues
• CK, dn $.0450 @ $3.70; CN, dn $.04 @ $3.7250.  Fund selling totaled 6 K at mid-week     
• SK, dn $0.12 @ $8.6125; SN, dn $.12 @ $8.6850.  Funds: Sold 2 SB; 1 SBO; 1 SBM.  Board crush: $0.93 (K/K), +1; LY, $0.99 
• WK, dn $.0975 @ $5.03; WN, dn $.0950@ $5.0375.  Fund selling amounted to 6 K on Wednesday                   

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·   &n​bsp;   Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending Mar. 05; trade expects 24-47 mbu for 2019/20 corn sales

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, safrinha (double crop) corn in Goiás and Mato Grosso (~50% of production) gradually turns wetter from north to south over the next several days as tropical waves of energy to the north shift southward

·       Consultant: in the largest safrinha (double crop) corn producing state of Mato Grosso in Brazil, corn acreage is up 5% compared to last year.  The long range forecast is for good rains for the state for the remainder of March

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,044,000 barrels/day for week ending March 6—dn 3.2% v. prior week but up 3.9% v. 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending Mar. 05; trade expects 15-29 mbu for 2019/20 soybean sales; 125-400 for 19/20 soymeal; and 7-35 for 19/20 soyoil

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, substantial rain totals of 1.25”-2.50” are forecast for soybeans over the next 10 days

·       Consultant: the soybean growth cycle in Argentina would be the equivalent of about mid-August in the U.S., making confirmation of forecasted rain very important to yield potential

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending Mar. 05; trade expects 7-22 mbu for 2019/20 wheat sales

·       T-storm Weather®: U.S. HRW wheat receives at least 0.50”-1.50” over the next 10 days to develop or maintain adequate to favorable soil moisture leading into April

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLJ20, -$1.82 @ $31.15; EBK, -$2.15 @ $33.64; EBK-QCLK, -0.46; RBJ, -.1049; NGJ, -.095; HOJ, -.0883

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.02125 to $1.2275; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.00125 @ $.1025; Gulf, -$.04375 @ $.0875; Dallas, -$.01375 @ +$.0975; Tampa, -$.00375 @ +$.20750; LA, +$.00625 @ +$.22250

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker: 2018’s, -1.25 @ 22-32; 2019’s, -1.00 @ 30 -32; 2020’s, -1.00 @ 33 -35                                              ​                        &​nbsp;                                                 &​nbsp;

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread inverted further, $.0248 to -$.1117 yesterday    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         ​;              

• Choice boxed beef was 8-cents lower on Wednesday at $207.07, but is still up 35-cents compared to a week ago
• U.S. cattle slaughter for Wednesday was estimated at 123,000 head vs. 122,000 last week and 110,000 last year           

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 51-cents on Wed. to $67.56, and is $2.88 higher vs. last week

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.48 on Wed. to $57.75.  April futures lost $1.125 & are $6.125 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®