HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down!:  CH, -$.0325; SH, -$.0975; WH, -$.0825; KWH, -$.0825.  Coronavirus/demand destruction fears grow

·       What caught my eye: The Outlook Forum’s 20/21 ending corn stocks # of 2.6 bbu/17.9% stx/use ratio is the most “adequate” cushion since 2.1 bbu/19.8% in 04/05.  Times have changed but the average farm price then was $2.43, vs USDA at $3.60

·       Gold is again sharply higher; coronavirus cases spike in Italy.  Asia: Down: Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, -0.28%; Hang Seng, -2.25%; EUROPE: Down rather hard—DAX, -3.74%; FTSE, -3.52%; CAC, -3.84%.  WALL STREET: Futures, tighten belt--DOW, -830; S&P, -93.25; NAS, -312.  EXTERNALS: April crude, -$2.11 @ $52.82; Gold: +$38.90 @ $1,688; Mar $ Index, +.327 @ 99.515

• Weather: isolated showers continue across central and northern Brazil today and Tuesday, providing moisture to newly planted safrinha (double crop) corn but slowing soybean harvest.  Temperatures average near to slightly above normal today-Tue.  A chance for isolated showers is forecast for southern Brazil today-Tue. with near normal temps.  Outside of a low chance for isolate showers today, most areas in southern Argentina remain dry through mid-week.  Temps are forecast to be near to below-normal
• CH, dn $.0325 @ $3.7375; CK, dn $.0325 @ $3.7750.  Déjà vu’ . . . continuing, demand remains a worry, funds sold 6 K      
• SH, dn $.0975 @ $8.8075; SK, dn $.10 @ $8.89.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 4 SBM, & bot 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.83, 0; LY, $0.97,-; 
• WH, dn $.0825 @ $5.4275; WK, dn $.0975 @ $54225.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K          

      CORN/SORGHUM

· &nb​sp;     Export inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 44.3 mbu needed; 31.3 last week.  Milo—2.5 needed; 2.9 last week

·       Consultant: In Brazil, only a very few early maturing corn fields have been harvested in Entre Rio and Santa Fe with good yields being reported.  There is every expectation that high yields will be seen as harvest moves ahead

·       USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday pegged 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.637 bbu compared to 1.892 in 2019/20.  The season-average farm price for 2020/21 was forecast at $3.60 versus $3.85 for 2019/20

·       Through Feb. 21, the average projected crop insurance price for December 2020 corn futures is $3.9116

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 28.1 mbu needed; 36.5 last week

·       USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday pegged 2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 320 mbu compared to 475 in 2019/20.  The season-average farm price for 2020/21 was forecast at $8.80 versus $8.75 for 2019/20

·       Consultant: recent wet weather has slowed the soybean harvest in Brazil, but quality has not been affected thus far

·       Through Feb. 21, the average projected crop insurance price for November 2020 soybean futures is $9.1991

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 23.2 mbu needed; 18.4 last week

·       USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday pegged 20/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 777 mbu compared to 940 in 2019/20.  The season-average farm price for 2020/21 was forecast at $4.90 versus $4.55 for 2019/20

ENERGY

·       Down: CLJ20, -$2.11 @ $51.27; EBJ, -$2.34 @ $55.18; EBJ-QCLJ, -.24; RBJ, -.0680; NGJ, -.071; HOJ, -.315

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00625 lower Friday at $1.32875; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.00375 @ $.07625; Gulf, -$.00375 @ $.10625; Dallas, +$.00625 @ +$.09125; Tampa, +$.01125 @ +$.19625; LA, -$.02375 +$.18125

·       Ethanol RINs values, higher: 2018’s, +2.25 @ 23 -26; 2019’s, +1.50 @ 24 ¾ -28 ¼; 2020’s, +.750 @ 32-33 ¼                                                              ​                        &​nbsp;                        <​wbr>            

·    ​   The March RBOB/March ethanol spread was $.0029 wider at $.3386/gallon        

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    ​   

• Choice boxed beef increased 59-cents on Friday to $205.09 but is still $3.00 lower compared to a week ago 
• Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 102.2% (102.4% avg est); Jan. placed, 99.4% (101.9%); Jan. Market, 101.1% (101.0%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 41-cents on Fri. to $63.70 and is up $1.76 compared to last week   

·         CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.09 on Fri. to $55.87.  April futures firmed $0.150 and are $11.155 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN