HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Something for everyone:  CZ, unch; SF, -$.0150; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.0225

·       What caught my eye:  YTD SB sales 49% of USDA’s Nov 1.775 bbu forecast, versus 63% 5-year average; YTD exports are 26% of the forecast, vs 31% average.  Yr on Yr export increase to China more than offsets decline in non-PRC business; USDA #’s look ok 

·       Beijing invites Lighthizer & Mnuchin for more dialogue.  ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.32%; Shanghai, -0.63%; Hang Seng, +0.48%.  EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, -0.01%; FTSE, +1.00%; CAC, +0.23%.  WALL STREET—Futures are a bit firmer-- DOW, +21; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +18.50.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: -$0.26@ $58.32; Gold: +$8.50 @ $1,472; $ Index: +.007 @ 98.000

• T-storm Weather®: despite thunderstorms at varying points in time, southern Brazil and Paraguay likely remain drier than normal over the next two weeks as agricultural drought continues.  Central and northern Brazil experience isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times, but only near- and below-normal rainfall are probable through early December.  Argentina will be the main beneficiary of the ongoing pattern from a round of heavy thunderstorms this weekend that ease topsoil and subsoil dryness
• CZ, unch @ $3.6850; CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.7875.  Decent export sales, Funds buy a couple of K
• SF, dn $.0150 @ $8.9950; SH, dn $.0150 @ $9.1375.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 6 SBO and bot 1 SBM.  Board Crush: $0.99, +1; LY, $1.04
• WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.1175; WH, up $.0250 @ $5.1450.  The funds sell 4 K on worries over N African import demand                

CORN/SOR​GHUM

·       ATI Research: unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. corn as of Nov. 14 were 317 mbu—down 32% from last year’s 463 mbu and 45% from 574 mbu on the books in 2017.  This year’s total is the lowest for this time of year since 2012

• T-storm Weather®: a series of moderate to large & strong systems eject from the western U.S. every few days starting Tue., producing widespread precip of 1.00”-3.00” across Corn Belt & Delta over Nov. 26-Dec. 4; highest totals in Delta

·       Consultant: crop ratings for early planted corn in Argentina are better than last year at this time.  However, the soil moisture is drier than it was last year

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       A​TI Research: Unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Nov. 14 were 417 mbu, which is down 3% from last year’s 431 mbu and 22% from the 535 mbu on the books two years ago

• T-storm Weather®: a series of moderate to large & strong systems eject from the western U.S. every few days starting Tue., producing widespread precip of 1.00”-3.00” across Corn Belt & Delta over Nov. 26-Dec. 4; highest totals in Delta

·       ATI Research: unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Nov. 14 were 144 mbu—down 24% from last year

·       T-storm Weather®: a large but loosely-organized system produces showers on southern HRW wheat in the Plains today, but keeps organized substantial rainfall of 0.75” to 1.50” limited to SRW wheat in the Delta

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLF20, -$0.26 @ $58.32; EBF, -$0.14 @ $63.83; EBF-QCLF, +.11; RBF, -.0102; NGF, +.010 HOF, +.0030

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0125 firmer at $1.5425; basis values eased:  NYC, -$.0375 @ +$.05750; Gulf, -$.0250 @ +$.02250; Dallas, -$.0275 @ +.05750; Tampa, -$.0275 @ +$.16250; LA, +$.0125 @ +$.1625

·       Ethanol RINs were lower: 2018’s, -0.50 @ 5-7; 2019’s, -0.3750 @ 12 ¾ -13 ½; 2020’s, -.6250 @ 21 ¼ -22                              &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​

·       The December RBOB/December ethanol spread widened further Thursday, $.0371 to $.2884/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         ​              

• Choice boxed beef fell $3.35 on Thursday to $234.86 and is $6.20 lower versus a week ago 
• Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Nov. 1 on feed, 101.4%; Placed in Oct., 112.2%; Marketed in Oct., 99.6%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $5.51 on Thu. to $80.47 and is $5.57 lower versus a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.04 on Thu. to $59.54.  December futures firmed $0.200 and are $1.11 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®