HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Weaker:  CZ, -$.0350; SF, -$.0575; WZ, -$.0425; KWZ, -$.0325.

·      What caught my eye:  Global ending soybean stocks were reduced 2.4 MMT from last month to 95.4 and are now down 13% or 14.3 million from the 18/19 end of year total

·      Trump denies he has agreed to roll back tariffs on Chines goods.  ASIA: Weaker--Nikkei, +0.26%; Shanghai, -1.83%; Hang Seng, -2.62%.  EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.37%; FTSE, -0.72%; CAC, -0.08%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower-- DOW, -111; S&P, -11.50; NAS, -37.50.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.93 @ $56.31; Gold: +$3.80 @ $1,467; $ Index: -.101 @ 98.252

• T-storm Weather®: A series of cool fronts trigger occasional t-storms in central Brazil over the next two weeks, but most hold off for 10 to 14 days in the north, and below-normal rainfall affects the south (and Paraguay) as some t-storms over the next week are followed by a sharply drier period.  Some t-storms dot Argentina through Wed., but limited coverage and a drier period that follows maintain drought.
• CZ, dn $.0350 @ $3.7375; CH, dn $.0275 @ $3.8375.  The funds bought 5 K on report day                
• SF, dn $.0575 @ $9.26; SH, dn $.0525 @ $9.3875.  Funds: Sold 5 K SB; 2K SBM & bot 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.93, +4; LY, $0.95
• WZ, dn $.0425 @ $5.06; WH, dn $.0450 @ $5.0975.  The funds sold 4 K Friday in spite of a somewhat friendly USDA report               

CORN/SORGHUM

·      U.S. corn production at 13.661 bbu was 59 million above the trade average; the USDA yield of 167.0 was down 1.4 bpa from October and 3/10’s below the average trade estimate

·      Ending corn stocks of 1.910 bbu exceeded the trade average by 111 mbu and are now forecasted to be about 200 million below the 18/19 fina.

·      Corn harvested expected at 65%, vs 52% LW; 83% LY and 85% AVG

·      Mainly cold and dry weather will prevail in the U.S. to allow corn and soybean harvesting to continue more smoothly

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      U.S. soybean production was unchanged from October at 3.550 bbu, 47 million higher than the trade average; this month’s  yield of 46.9 bpa was unchanged from LM and 3/10’s larger than the trade average

·      Ending soybean stocks  were clearly bearish at 475 mbu, up 15 from October while the trade was expecting a 31 mbu decline to 429 million

·      Ending wheat stocks were supportive at 1.014 bbu on a smaller spring wheat production figure; the trade had been expecting only an 8 mbu decline to 1.035 bbu

·      Soybean harvest expected at 87%, vs 75% LW; 87% LY and 92% AVG

·      Winter wheat planting estimated at 94%, vs 89% LW; 88% LY and 92% AVG

·      64% & 79% of Brazil SB were drier than normal past 20 & 90 days; 17% & 10% LY. In Argentina, 27% & 65%, against 28% and 26% a year ago

ENERGY

·      Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.93 @ $56.31; EBF, -$0.87 @ $61.64; EBF-QCLF, +.01; RBZ, -.0192; NGZ, -.109; HOZ, -.0208

·      Chicago ethanol was $.03375 higher Friday at $1.5250; basis values were mixed:  NYC, -$.02625 @ +$.108; Gulf, +$.00125 @ +$.10; Dallas, -$.02375 @ +.0550; Tampa, -$.03375 @ +$.16; LA, +$.06625 @ +$.23

·      Ethanol RINs were firm: 2018’s, +1.125 @ 5 -7; 2019’s, +.0875 @ 12 ½ -14 2020’s, +1.6250 @ 23 ½ -24 ½                                          &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;            

·    &nb​sp; The December RBOB/December ethanol spread again narrowed, $.0148 to $.2157/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &nb​sp;                        

·      Choice boxed beef firmed $0.83 yesterday to $239.12 and was up $5.92 versus a week earlier     

• Early calls have cash hogs opening steady to slightly lower today with cash cattle steady to $1 higher

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value rose $1.40 Friday to $81.60 and is up $6.71 versus the prior week

·      CME Lean Hog Index was up $.10 cents to $60.29 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®