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TREND Weaker CN, Down 1, SN, Down 2, WN, Down 9

May 22, 2020 08:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker:  CN, -.0150; SN, -$.0475; WN, -$.07; KWN, -$.0450

·       What caught my eye: Short term corn export outlook improves 4 to 50 per week, which would be 10 mbu more than the year ago pace for the up-coming period as the weekly sales average is at a 4-year high; beans likely to remain at 13-20 per week 

·       Proposed China national security law threatens Hong Kong’s autonomy.  Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, -0.80%; Shanghai, -1.89%; Hang Seng, -5.56%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.32%; FTSE, -0.93%; CAC, -0.03%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Lower--DOW, -93; S&P, -10.75; NAS, -49.50.   EXTERNALS: July crude, -$2.05 @ $31.87Gold: +$13.60 $1,736; Sep $ Index, +0.451 @ 99.850

·       T-storm Weather®: pockets of rain today focus on central/southern Plains & western Corn Belt.  Rains then expand & affect areas further east as the wave passes Sat., while a larger system assembles in the Plains.  The larger system then produces pockets of rain in much of central U.S. Sat.-Tue., diminishing from northwest to southeast.  Finally, a cold front sweeps across central U.S. May 28-30 to mark the onset of a drier period as muggy air is swept away, but not before triggering scattered rain when it passes

  • CN, dn $.0150 @ $3.1625; CU, dn $.0175 @ $3.2215.  The funds sold 3 K on Thursday                
  • SN, dn $.0425 @ $8.3075; SQ, dn $.04 @ $8.3450.  Funds: Sold 8 SB; 5 SBM, 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.85 (N/N), +3; LY, $1.28
  • WN, dn $.07 @ $5.09; WU, dn $.07 @ $5.1175.  The funds bought 2 K yesterday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: likely result over the next week is 1.00”-3.00” of rain in much of central & southern Plains (except lighter in CO), 0.75”-1.50” in Corn Belt & Delta (wettest west), while 0.25”-0.75” is most common in  northern Plains

·       U.S. corn export sales of 34.8 mbu for 19/20 delivery for week ending May 14 were down 18% from last week and 10% versus the 4-week avg.  However, unshipped export sales of 504 mbu are still up 35% versus 372 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, dry weather prevails through today.  A round of organized thunderstorms follows Fri.-Sat. on corn in southern areas, as a cool front produces 1.00”-2.00” in Mato Grosso do Sul & drought-stricken Paraná

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs Argentina corn harvest at 43.5%; final production estimate remains at 50.0 MMT

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: likely result over the next week is 1.00”-3.00” of rain in much of central & southern Plains (except lighter in CO), 0.75”-1.50” in Corn Belt & Delta (wettest west), while 0.25”-0.75” is most common in  northern Plains

·       U.S. soybean export sales of 44.3 mbu for 19/20 delivery for week ending May 14 were up 99% from last week & up 80% versus the 4-week avg.  However, unshipped export sales of 235 mbu are down 46% versus 435 mbu last year

·       Combined old- & new-crop unshipped U.S. HRW wheat export sales for week end May 14 were up 27% v. 5-year avg.

·       T-storm Weather®: although 52% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier than normal last 60 days, two systems produce widespread rain across central U.S. next 5 days, improving soil moisture for HRW wheat of central & southern Plains

ENERGY

·       Down! CLN20, -$2.05 @ $31.87EBN, -$1.73 $34.33EBN-QCLN, +$0.32; RBM, -.0345; NGM, -.015; HOM, -.0368

·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.0050 to $1.1350/gallon; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0150 @ +$.0550; Gulf, unch @ $.09; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.1350; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.250; LA, -$.0050 @ +$.1950

·       Ethanol RINs values, firm: 2018’s, +.50 @ 25 -27 ½; 2019’s, +.75 @ 35 -37 ½; 2020’s: +.1250 @ 38 -40                                  &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​   

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse continues to narrow, losing $.0173 to $.0639/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nb​sp;                        

  • Choice boxed beef was $2.23 lower on Thursday at $401.81, and is down $49.11 versus last week
  • Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: May 1 on feed, 95.0%; Placed in April, 77.1%; Marketed in April, 74.7%
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.00 on Thu. to $96.94, and is $16.09 lower compared to a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.39 on Thu. at $64.59.  June futures firmed $2.475 but are $5.24 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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