HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Weaker: CH, -0.0225; SF, -$.0650; WH, -$.0450; KWH, -$.05.  Dalian Jan futures: C, -1; SB, -10.  Dely: SRW, 12; HRS, 0        

·       What caught my eye:  Chinese crush was again lower, off 3% LW to 1.65 MMT.  And, while the 4-week average has slowed from yr to yr increases of 25-30% a month ago to 10%, the latest pace IS near/below levels seen in both 2016 and 2017

·       Will there be a post-Brexit trade deal ahead of year end deadline?  Status of U.S. Covid relief package?  Markets not optimistic

• Asia: Weaker:  Nikkei, -0.30%; Shanghai, -0.19%; Hang Seng, -0.76%
• EUROPE:  Weaker:  DAX, -0.31%; FTSE, -0.52%; CAC, -0.75% 
• WALL STREET: Weaker–DOW futures, -134; S&P, -19; NAS, -38.25
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, -$0.24 @ $45.5290; Gold: -$0.90 @ $1,865; Mar $ Index, +0.058 @ 90.760
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms form along the remnant of a cool front central and north through Thu.-Fri. with highest coverage most likely Wed.-Thu.  Southern areas stay dry until some thunderstorms along a cool front Dec. 13-14 and then at times over the week that follows.  In Argentina, cool fronts trigger some thunderstorms Friday, Sunday, and at times next week, but low humidities likely limit coverage and amounts
• CH, dn $.0225 @ $4.2175; CK, dn $.02 @ $4.2475.  The funds bought 3 K on rumors China was back in for corn and ethanol
• SF, dn $.0650 @ $11.52; SH, dn $.0550 @ $11.57.  Funds: sold 3 SB, 3 SBM, 4 SBO. Board crush: $1.19 (Z/F), -4; LY, $1.07
• WH, dn $.0450 @ $5.73; WK, dn $.0425 @ $5.7675.  The funds were even in Monday’s trade              

 &nbs​p;CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA WASDE report on Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--20/21, 1.691 bbu (range 1.550-1.815)

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 20/21 U.S. corn is 1.632 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.702

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 corn crop estimate is unchanged at 104.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward.  The rainfall last week and over the weekend in southern Brazil helped to stabilize full-season corn

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, thunderstorms in recent weeks eased (but did not fully break) dryness on corn, but only around half of normal rainfall is likely over the next two weeks

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report on Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--20/21, 0.169 bbu (range 0.120-0.221)

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 20/21 U.S. soybean is 0.118 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 0.190

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 soybean production estimate is unchanged at 130.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias

·       T-storm Weather®: 3.00”-5.00” of rain next 2 weeks in central/north Brazil eases dryness but not longer-term drought

·       USDA WASDE Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--20/21, 0.877 bbu (range 0.850-0.917) & 0.877 in Nov.

·       T-storm Weather®: Recent rain eased dryness on U.S. HRW wheat, leaving approx. half of the crop drier than normal

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLF21, -$0.24 @ $45.52; EBG, -$0.34 @ $48.45; EBG-CLG, -0.08; RBF, -.0011; NGF, +.041; HOF, -.0024

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0030 lower Monday at $1.3020/gallon. Basis, mixed:  NYC, +$0.0080 @ $.0980; Gulf, -$.0120 @ +$.0830; Dallas, +$.0030 @ +$.0530; Tampa, -$.0020 @ +$.1680; LA, +$.0030 @ +$.1330

·       Ethanol RINs, higher: 2019’s, up 1.125 @ 67 ¼-69 ¾; 2020’s, up 1.125 @ 68-71 ½; 2021, up 0.375 @ 69 ½  –72 ¾                          ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;    

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is $.0017 higher at  -$.07 per gallon this morning  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &​nbsp;                      <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef declined $4.22 on Monday to $230.80, and is down $12.88 compared to a week ago

·       5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $0.52 v. last week at $109.75/cwt, and is dn $9.17 v. last year

• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $0.12 on Mon. to $76.76, but is still $2.09 lower versus last week 
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $34.28/cwt vs. last week’s $33.35, last month’s $34.98 & last year’s $42.72

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather