HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Tuesday’s bounce:  CZ, +$.0150; SX, +$.0575; WZ, +$.0475; KWZ, +$.0550 

·       What caught my eye: It’s early yet but the sluggish buying of U.S. corn and soybeans by Mexico—corn purchases down 24% yr to yr and beans, off 14%--is worth watching in terms of achieving the USDA’s export forecasts   

·       U.S. stock futures struggle to recover from yesterday’s sell-off, concern over the economic recovery remains

• Asia—Weaker:  Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, -1.29%; Hang Seng, -.98%
• EUROPE: Firmer—DAX, +0.88%; FTSE, +0.29; CAC, +0.17%
• WALL STREET: Futures, mixed --DOW, -63; S&P, unch; NAS, +49.75
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, +$0.63 @ $39.94; Gold: -$2.20 @ $1,908; Mar $ Index, -.004 @ 93.635
• Weather: the U.S. Midwest will be mostly dry for much the week, benefiting corn & soybean harvest, as well as winter wheat planting.  A system this upcoming weekend will pull in moisture from Tropical Storm Beta, producing moderate rain east of the Mississippi River.  Temps are forecast to be near to above normal through today in western Corn Belt, near normal south Wed.-Fri.  & above to well above normal north; meanwhile, temps are projected to be near to above normal today-Fri. in eastern Corn Belt
• CZ, up $.0150 @ $3.7125; CH, up $.0150 @ $3.8075.  Funds sold 15 K, too many negative indicators              
• SX, up $.0575 @ $10.2825; SF, up $.0550 @ $10.33.  Funds sold 15 K SB. Board crush: $0.88 (V/X), +2; LY, $0.80
• WX, up $.0475 @ $5.5950; WH, up $.05 @ $5.68. The funds sold 10 K as bearish sentiment prevailed                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings at 61% vs. 60% last week and 57% last year.  Corn mature as of Sep. 20 was 59% vs. 26% last year & 5-year avg. of 49%; corn harvested is pegged at 8% vs. 6% last year & the avg. of 10% 

·       Weather: isolated showers over Sep. 28-30 impact the U.S. Corn Belt; temps average near to below normal Sep. 29-30

·       ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 20/21 marketing year are pegged at 2.484 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.503 bbu

·       Weather: dry conditions impact corn production this week across Ukraine & west Russia, benefiting early corn harvest

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings at 63%--unch v. last week & above 54% last year.  Soybeans dropping leaves as of Sep 20. was 59% vs. 29% last year & the avg. of 50%; soybeans harvested: 6% vs. 2% last year & avg. of 6% 

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.332 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.460 bbu

·       U.S. spring wheat harvest: 96% v. 84% last year & 96% avg.; winter wheat planting: 20% v. 18% last year & avg. of 19%

·       ATI Research: U.S. HRW ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.396 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.385 bbu

·       Weather: moderate/heavy rain expected Thu. night through Sun. for many wheat areas in central & south Argentina

ENERGY

·       Firm:  CLV20, +$0.63 @ $39.94; EBX, +$0.48 @ $41.92; EBX-QCLV, +0.06; RBV, +.0016; NGV, +.046; HOV, +.0095

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.0050 yesterday to $1.4125; Basis most weaker: NYC, -$.03 @ +$.0725; Gulf, -.0075 @ +$.08; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.0325; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.1325; LA, unch @ +$.1075

·       Ethanol RIN values, mixed: 2019’s, unch @ 47 ½ - 49 1/2; 2020’s: -0.3750 @ 49 ¾ -50                                            &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                      ​

·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is $.0110 firmer this morning at -$.2319 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &​nbsp;               <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef firmed $0.58 on Monday, but is still down $0.99 versus the previous week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $2.33 v. last week at $103.54/cwt, and is up $1.62 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $2.90 higher on Mon., & is up $10.60 compared to a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $36.06/cwt vs. last week’s $38.14, last month’s $33.01 & last year’s $43.50

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®