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TREND Higher CN Up 2, SN Up 11, WN Up 1

June 8, 2016 08:29 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         RKEMAT TREND—Higher:  CN: Up $.02; SN: Up $.1125; WN: Up $.0125; KWN: Up $.01

·         MACRO.  World Bank cut its global growth forecast ½ % to 2.4%--developed economy weakness, low commodity prices (soybeans?),weak trade.   ASIA: Mixed with Shanghai off .32%; the Hang Seng shed .14%; the Nikkei gained .93%. EUROPE:  Lower—growth concerns, FTSE, -.03%; DAX, -.45%; CACA, -.38%. WALL STREET:  Pre-markets higher with DOW futures, +22; S&P, +3.50; NAS, +4 ½.  EXTERNALS:  The $ Index is .117 lower @ 93.680; gold, up $9.30 @ $1,254.80; July crude, up $.70

·         T-storm Weather: Coolness breaks and several days of heat begin over today through Friday.  The leading edge of heat triggers some thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt Thursday night, but most other areas stay dry through at least Sunday.  Heat breaks as a couple waves trigger thunderstorms within the central U.S. next week.  The exact setup is to complex and far into the future to have high confidence, but we continue to forecast generalized amounts of 0.75" to 1.50" from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt and Delta next week – most likely within Monday-Wednesday

·         CN, Up $.02 @ $4.2975; CZ, Up $.0175 @ $4.35.  The funds bought 6 K yesterday       

·         SN, Up $.1125 @ $11.5250; SX, Up $.0950 @ $11.2625.  Funds:  Bought 5 K SB, 3 K SBM and; sold 5 K SBO

·         WN, Up $.01 @ $5.10; WU, Up $.0125 @ $5.2050.  Fund buying totaled 4 K

CORN/SORGHUM                      ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                                &nbs​p;

·         December 2016 corn futures closed at $4.33 ¼ Tuesday—highest settlement price for the contract since July 16, 2015

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports pegged to range from 44-48 mbu vs. 39.6 for the same period last year

·         Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate steady at 76.0 MMT.  Weather in central Brazil continues to encourage a ramping up ofsafrinha (double crop) harvest, but progress in southern production areas is slowed by wet weather

·         T-storm Weather: It remains most probable for sharp warming to return in the central U.S. within June 17-21

·         Ethanol margins: $0.22 per gallon—up from 0.18 last week but well below $0.50 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Expect near-term U.S. soybean exports to average around 8-9 mbu per week vs. 9.4 last year

·         Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 56.0 MMT.  There continue to be regions where the average yield is above 50 bpa, which is compensating for some of the flood-induced production losses

·         T-storm Weather: Un-harvested soybean areas in Argentina stay unseasonably cool & mainly dry over next 10 days

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 13-17 mbu per week  

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat yield is estimated at 46.3 bpa vs. 46.2 last year and equal to the record posted in 2014

ENERGY

·         Higher: CLN16, +$0.70, $51.06; EBQ, +$0.77; EBQ-CLN, +$1.20, +$0.12; RBN, +$.0123;  NGN, +0.021; HON, +$.0158

·         EIA estimates: crude, -3.1 (API: -3.6); Gasoline, -0.5 (+0.8); Distillates, -0.3 (+0.3)

·         A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago unchanged; New York and Dallas down ½; Gulf off ¾; Tampa eased ¼; but LA was 1 higher at $1.81 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s added 1 at 82 ¼-83 ½; 2015’s up 1 to 82 ¼-83 ½; and 2016’s increased 1 to 82-83 ¼

·         The July RBOB/July inverse retreated $.0074 to -.10990/gallon Tuesday                               

 LIVESTO​CK/POULTRY                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                       

&middo​t;         Choice boxed beef values were 17-cents higher at $224.27 on Tuesday, and are up $2.93 compared to a week ago

·         Cash cattle trading was not tested Tuesday, with asking prices of $130-$132 noted in the South and $210 in the North

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 24-cents lower Tuesday at $85.89 but is still $2.01 higher v. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.66 on Tuesday to $78.17.  June futures eased $0.40 but are still $3.68 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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