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TR ENDS Down CN,Down 4, SN, Down 12, WN, Down 6

May 4, 2020 08:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725.  Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4

·       What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy 

·       U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485

·       T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal.  A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat.  A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains

  • CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950.  The funds ended the week by selling  1 K      
  • SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
  • WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K         

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week.  Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue.  A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week

·       Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM,&n​bsp;-.0007

·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37                                    ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                    

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &​nbsp;               <​/wbr>

  • Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
  • From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27.  May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

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HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725.  Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4

·       What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy 

·       U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485

·       T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal.  A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat.  A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains

  • CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950.  The funds ended the week by selling  1 K      
  • SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
  • WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K         

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week.  Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue.  A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· ​;      Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week

·       Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007

​ ·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37                            ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;    

​

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​      &nbs​p;                   

  • ​ Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
  • From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27.  May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

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HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725.  Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4

·       What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy 

·       U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485

·       T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal.  A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat.  A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains

  • CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950.  The funds ended the week by selling  1 K      
  • SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
  • WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K         

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week.  Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue.  A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week

·       Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007

·  ​;     Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37                           ​​​                    ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;          

​

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 ​;      

  • Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
  • From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27.  May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

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HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725.  Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4

·       What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy 

·       U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485

·       T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal.  A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat.  A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains

  • CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950.  The funds ended the week by selling  1 K      
  • SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
  • WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K         

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week.  Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue.  A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·&nbs​p;      Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week

·       Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007

&mid​dot;       Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37                           ​​​​​​​     ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;

​

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr>&​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;<​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr>

    ​
  • Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
  • From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27.  May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

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HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725.  Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4

·       What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy 

·       U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485

·       T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal.  A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat.  A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains

  • CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950.  The funds ended the week by selling  1 K      
  • SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
  • WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K         

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week.  Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue.  A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·    ​   Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week

·       Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007

​

·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37                           ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​               ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;              

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​                    ​      ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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  • Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
  • From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27.  May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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HIGHLIGHTS

·      TR ENDS—Down:  CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725.  Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4

·       What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy 

·       U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485

·       T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal.  A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat.  A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains

  • CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950.  The funds ended the week by selling  1 K      
  • SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
  • WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125.  Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K         

<​strong>CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week.  Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue.  A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·  &nbs​p;    Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”;  temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week

·       Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·     &nb​sp; Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007

·   ​    Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37                                    &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                    ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &​nbsp;                       <​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr>

  • ​ Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
  • From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27.  May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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