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T RENDS Mostly weaker CK, Down 2, SK, Down 1, WK, Down 3

April 24, 2020 07:18 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  T·     RENDS—Mostly weaker:  CK, -$.0225; SK, +$.0050; WK, -$.02; KWK, -$.05

·       What caught my eye: Including Unknown, soybean sales to China since last Friday are around 22 mbu but some are suggesting most of this is for late summer loading. Which, won’t do much for reaching the USDA’s 1.775 bbu export forecast

·       U.S. stock futures are higher despite signs of a severe economic downturn. Asia: Lower-- Nikkei, -0.86%; Shanghai, -1.06%; Hang Seng, -0.61%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.84%; FTSE, -0.80%; CAC, -0.69%.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm(?)--DOW, +91; S&P, +14.5; NAS, +29.25.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$0.08 $15.58Gold: +$9.40 $1,755; Sep $ Index, +0.208 @ 100.735

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread rain develops today-Saturday in the Corn Belt, when the next system and cool front pass (0.50” to 1.00” amounts); the same system also triggers some showers and thunderstorms today in the central and southern Plains, but well-organized rain is not expected.  A similar system follows a similar path Tuesday-Wednesday (April 28-29), bringing more rain to the Corn Belt (0.50” to 1.00” amounts), but bypassing areas of the Plains outside the Dakota

  • CK, dn $.0225 @ $3.17; CN, dn $.0125 @ $3.2475.  Funds bought 4 K on China corn rumors but confirmation was absent
  • SK, up $.0050 @ $8.3975; SN, dn $.0075 @ $8.46.  Funds bot 5 K SB, 1 K SBM, 2 K SBO. Board crush: $0.78 (K/K), -3; LY, $1.13
  • WK, dn $.02 @ $5.45; WN, up $.0050 @ $5.4525.  Funds were said to have been even in Thursday’s trading session     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-s​torm Weather®: in the U.S. Corn Belt, several days of dry and mild weather develop starting April 30, after which a new system passes and brings rain to parts of the central U.S. around May 4

·       U.S. 2019/20 corn export sales for the week ending April 16 totaled 28.6 mbu, which is down 20% from the previous week and 49% from the prior 4-week average

·       December 2020 corn futures on Thursday closed at $3.38 ¾; one year ago, December 2019 futures settled at $3.77 ¼

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, most second-crop corn likely receives no rain over the next 10 days.  The upcoming lack of rain likely marks the onset of the dry season in Goiás and Mato Grosso, and a resumption of drought south

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S. Corn Belt, several days of dry and mild weather develop starting April 30, after which a new system passes and brings rain to parts of the central U.S. around May 4

·       U.S. 2019/20 soybean export sales for the week ending April 16 totaled 12.7 mbu, which is up 41% from the previous week but down 48% from the prior 4-week average

·       U.S. 2019/20 wheat export sales for week end April 16 of 9.0mbu were up 37% v. last week but dn 22% v. 4-week avg.

·       T-storm Weather®: except for rain along northwest fringe of wheat in Russia & Ukraine Sun., & some rain in central France as upper-level circulation spins into next week, most other winter wheat areas stay dry through at least Tue.

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLM20+$.08 @ $16.58EBM, +$.28 @ $21.61; EBM-QCLM, +$.19; RBM, +.0005; NGM, +.043; HOM, -.0167

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00125 to $.91875/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.00125 @ $.00875; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.04875; Dallas, +$.01625 @ +$.11625; Tampa, +$.02625 @ +$.21625; LA, +$.00125 @ +$.14625

·       Ethanol RINs values, mixed; 2018’s, unch @ 20 ½ -21; 2019’s, +1.25 @ 25 -27; 2020’s: -0.125 @ 33 ½ -35 ¼                                                            ​;                        ​                         ​                     <​/p>

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened $.0078 on Thursday to $.2894/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &n​bsp;           

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  • Choice boxed beef was $8.54 higher on Thursday at $284.29, and is up $48.42 compared to last week
  • Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Apr. 1 on feed, 95.2%; Placed in Mar., 82.1%; Marketed in Mar., 112.3%
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $3.28 on Thu. to $75.89, & is $21.68 higher versus a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.82 on Thu. to $46.28.  May futures increased $3.75 & are $4.695 above the index
  • Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

     



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