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Sharply Lower on virus worries CH down 4, SH Down 7, WH, Down 6

January 27, 2020 08:47 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Sharply Lower on virus worries: CH, -$.0675; SH, -$.1250; WH, -$.1150; KWH, -$.0825 

·      What caught my eye: Record SBM sales on Friday of 642 K MT, bringing the 2-week total to over 1 MMT with the Philippines accounting for nearly 1/3rd of the total this week. YTD sales of 6.63 million are now 100 K off the USDA forecast

·      Coronavaris spread, markets fall around the globa.  Asia: down hard: Nikkei, -2.03%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, closed; EUROPE: Likewise—DAX, -2.38%; FTSE, -2.49%; CAC, -2.47%.  WALL STREET: Futures are getting slammed—DOW, -472; S&P, -54.5; NAS, -188.  EXTERNALS: March crude, -$1.95 $52.24; Gold: +$12.50 $1,559; $ Index, +.0097 @ 97.862 

·      T-storm Weather®: alternating dry and stormy periods in Brazil ultimately produce near- and above-normal rainfall on most corn and soybean areas over the next two weeks,  Temperatures will generally be favorable as areas of surface-level high pressure or clouds leave most near to cooler than normal.  In Argentina, coolness dominates most days as maximums frequently hold in the 80s, but areas of high pressure leave most corn and soybeans drier than normal, though soils are currently moist

  • CH, dn $.0675 @ $3.8075; CK, dn $.0650 @ $3.8625.  Coronavirus . . . funds sold 8 K on Friday      
  • SH, dn $.1250 @ $8.8975; SK, dn $.1225 @ $9.0350.  Funds: Sold 6 K SB; even SBM; sold 1 SBO.  Board crush: $1.06, +1; LY, $0.96-; 
  • WH, dn $.1150 @ $5.62; WK, dn $.1025 @ $5.6225.  The funds closed out the week selling 5 K                     

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &nb​sp;   Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 43.9 mbu needed; 13.6 last week.  Milo—2.5 needed; 0.7 last week

  • T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a wide area of corn remains cooler than normal over most of the next two weeks with highs in the 80s & lows in the 50s-60s.  Some rain occurs Tue.-Wed. & produces 0.25”-0.75” across a wide area

·      Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week pegged corn planting in Argentina at 94.7%.  Precipitation across vast areas of the country reportedly improved condition of corn; the most advanced corn is pollinating

·      Outstanding export sales of U.S. corn as of Jan. 16 totaled 413 mbu, which is 100 mbu or 19% lower than 513 mbu at the same time period last year 

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 27.7 mbu needed; 44.1 last week

·      Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week reported reproducing soybeans in Argentina have ideal to adequate moisture

·      T-storm Weather®: in central and northern Brazil, above-normal rainfall of 2.50” to 6.00” affects a wide area over the next two weeks, easing topsoil and subsoil dryness while occasionally slowing soybean harvesting

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 20.5 mbu needed; 16.0 last week

·      T-storm Weather®: Over the next five days, two weak systems produce light rainfall of 0.25” to 0.75” across the southern third to half of the U.S. Plains & Delta Tue.-Wed. & again Thu.-Fri., keeping HRW & SRW wheat areas moist

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLH20, -$1.95 $55.54; EBH, -$2.06 @ $58.63; EBH-QCLH-.15; RBH, -.0763; NGH, +.057; HOH, -.0688

·      Chicago ethanol lost $.0370 Friday , to $1.2930; basis values vs Chicago all firmer:  NYC, +$.0070 @ $.0820; Gulf, +.0120 @ $.0970; Dallas, +.0170 @ +$.1070; Tampa, +.0220 @ +$.1970; LA, +$.0220 @ +$.2320

·      Ethanol RINs values were unch/down: 2018’s, unch @ 7 -8; 2019’s, -.125 @ 8 ¾ - 9; 2020’s, -.125 @ 15 ½ -15 ¾                                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;      

·      The February RBOB/February ethanol spread narrowed further, off $.0240 $.2002       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                      ​

  • Choice boxed beef fell 83-cents on Friday to $214.49, but is still up 32-cents versus a week ago
  • Cattle on Feed: Jan 1 on feed, 102.3% (102.2% est); Dec placed, 103.5% (103.2%); Marketed in Dec, 105.3% (105.2%)

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.46 on Fri. to $76.48, but is still up $2.22 vs. last week 

·      CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.24 on Fri. to $61.53.  February futures fell $1.275 but are $5.695 above the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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