HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— Mixed--CZ: Up $.01; SX: Up $.0125; WZ: Down $.02; KWZ: Down $.02
· MACRO: Mostly lower—expectations for Fed rate hike grow. ASIA: Nikkei, -1.09%; Shanghai, -0.20%; Hang Seng, -0.60%. EUROPE: Weaker-FTSE, -0.31%; DAX, -0.08%; CAC, -0.15%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets are in the red with the DOW, -25; S&P, -2.75; NASDAQ, -9.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.073 @ 97.765; Gold, +$0.80 @ $1,256.70; Nov Crude, +$.02 @ $50.81. Deliveries: 157 SBM; 478 SBO
· T-Storm Weather: A cool front triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms within the U.S. central/northern Plains and Corn Belt through today with highest totals of 0.50” to 1.00” just east of wettest areas. Except for a cluster of thunderstorms that occur Friday in/near central Oklahoma, most other areas stay dry through Saturday. One or two days of coolness develops in northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains through Thursday before temps warm to above-normal levels again into the weekend
· Corn: CZ Up $.01 @ $3.4650; CH Up $.0075 @ $3.56. The funds continued to buy corn, 5 K on Tuesday
· SB: SX Up $.0125 @ $9.5550; SF Up $.01 @ $9.6275. Funds: Even SB, bot 2 SBM, sold 2 SBO. Z/X crush, $.73, +$.00; LY: $1.03
· Wheat: WZ Dwn $.02 @ $4.05; WH Down $.02 @ $4.23. The funds bought 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess U.S. corn crop, 15.040 bbu (range 14.713-15.200) and 15.093 in Sep.
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--16/17, 2.362 bbu (range 2.181-2.662) & 2.384 in Sep.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout est. at 2.378 bbu; U.S. sorghum; 16/17 carry-out est. at 57 mbu
· USDA est. corn mature pegged at 93% vs. 92% for last year & 88% avg.; harvest at 35% v. 38% last year & avg. of 38%. Good/Excellent of 73% is steady v. last week (68% in ‘15). Sorghum: Harvest at 48% v. 49% last year and 42% avg.
· T-storm Weather: An uptick in rain coverage and amounts for U.S. Corn Belt beginsSunday and continues next week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess U.S. soybean crop, 4.277 bbu (range 4.147-4.357) and 4.201 in Sep.
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--16/17, 415 mbu (range of 325-475) and 365 in Sep.
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 337 mbu
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean dropping leaves at 91% vs. 90% last year and the avg. of 88%; harvest at 44% vs. 56% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 47%. Good/Excellent crop ratings of 74% are steady vs. last week and above 64% in 2015
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess U.S. wheat carryout--16/17, 1.151 bbu (range 1.050-1.300) & 1.100 in Sep.
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 216 mbu compared to 278 last year
ENERGY
· Mostly Higher: CLX16, +$.02 @ $50.81; EBZ, +$.18; EBZ-CLX, $1.78, +$.16;RBX, +.0012; NGX, -$.047; HOX, -$.0004
· Modest gains were noted in most cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago added 1/8; New York steady; Gulf added 1 1/8; Tampa firmed a penny; Dallas increased ½; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.73 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up ½ to 91 ½-92 ¼; 2015’s firmed ½ to 91 ½-92 ¼; and 2016’s up ½ to 91 ¼-92
· The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse widened $.0273 to -0.08010/gallon inTuesday’s trade
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values declined 82-cents on Tuesday to $183.18, and are $3.16 lower compared to a week ago
· Tuesday closing price for Oct. live cattle futures of $97.50 is lowest settlement for nearby contract since Oct. 14, 2010
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell $1.58 on Tue. to $71.26, is down 28-cents v. last week & lowest since Jan. 13
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.17 lower on Tue. at $52.82. October futures up $0.775 but are $1.37 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather