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MARKETS CK, Down 3, SK, Down 4, WK, Down 2

March 23, 2016 07:05 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND:  CK, Down $.0075; SK, Down $.0275; WK, Down $.0025;  KWK, Up $.0075

·        ASIA:  Lower but “resilient” following yesterday’s terrorists attacks in Brussels. The Nikkei eased .28%; the Hang Seng was .25% lower while Shanghai moved up .38%. EUROPE:  Bouncing back with the FTSE .15% to the plus side; the CAC is .51% higher and the DAX, +1%.  U.S. PRE-MARKETS: DOW futures, down 3; S&P, up ¼; NAS, ¼ lower. EXTERNALS: $ Index, up 1/3rd of a point to 96.010; Gold is down  $15.30 to $1,233.90 and May crude is $.43 lower at $41.02

·        T-storm Weather: Significant rain and snow affect areas in / adjacent northeast Colorado through Nebraska and into the northern Corn Belt today-Thursday.  Scattered thunderstorms also affect soybean and SRW wheat areas of the Delta and Corn Belt, though heavy totals are not expected.  Driest areas from central Kansas and points south remain mostly dry due to an influx of dry air from the desert Southwest.  A cooler pattern generally follows over the next 10 to 14 days, most likely culminating in a fairly large cold snap around next Friday (April 1) when a major system exits

·        CK, Down $.0075 @ $3.6925;  CN, Down $.01 @ $3.7375.  The funds bought 3 K yesterday      

·        SK, Down $.0250 @ $9.0775; SN, Down $.03 @ $9.14.   Funds: bought 7 K SB; 5 K SBM and 5 K SBO

·        WK, Down $.0025 @ $4.6650;  WN, Down $.0025 @ $4.7425.  Fund buying estimated at 2 K on Tuesday  

CORN/SORGHUM                       &nbs​p;                                                 ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;          

·     ​   ATI Research: Last year, U.S. corn exports over the next month averaged 37 mbu per week; bias is 38-39 this year

·        Consultant: There has been a lot of rain during the month of March in Mato Grosso and Parana, Brazil (the two largest double crop corn producing states), so even though the crop was planted late, it has been developing normally

·        The USDA reported corn planting in Texas as of March 20 was 29% complete compared to 13% in 2015 and the 5-year average of 31%.  Sorghum planting is 22% complete, which is equal to the average but well ahead of last year’s 6%

·        Ethanol margins: $0.13 per gallon—down from $0.20 last week & below $0.47 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 a.m. CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: The 4-week average of U.S. soybean exports is projected to decline to approx. 25 mbu short-term

·        Consultant: The vast majority of soybeans in Argentina are rated good to very good with the exception of a small area in the northeastern part of the country where the crop could use some precipitation

·        ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to average 13-17 mbu per week over the next month

·        T-storm Weather: The potential exists for minimum temperatures to reach the 20s across a large area of the U.S. late next week, though the highest overall chance for 20s is away from jointed wheat nearest the Great Lakes  

ENERGY

·        Mixed:   CLK16, -$0.43 $41.02; EBK, -$0.40; EBK-CLK, +$0.37, +$.03; RBK, +$.0044; NGK, -0.012;  HOK, -$.0141

·        EIA estimates: crude, +2.9 (API: +8.8); Gasoline, -2.0 (-4.3); Distillates, -0.8 (-0.4)

·        A mostly steady to weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday:Chicago off ¼; New York steady; Gulf firmed ¼; Tampa and Dallas declined 2 ½; and LA was 1 lower at $1.50 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs steady to lower: 2014’s unch at 73-73 ½; 2015’s down 1/8 to 73-73 ½; and 2016’s unch at 73-73 ½

·        The carry in the April RBOB/April Ethanol spread increased $.0422 to +$.1111yesteday            

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​                     <​/wbr><​/wbr>

·  ​      Choice boxed beef values were $1.89 lower on Tuesday, and at $227.91 are down $3.10 vs. last week

·        Cash cattle trading was at a standstill on Tuesday with asking prices in the South at $142

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 85-cents Tuesday, but at $76.08 is still up 89-cents vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.19 lower at $66.00.  April futures were $0.80 higher and are $4.15 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP

 

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