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MARKETS CH, Up 1, SF, Up 1, WH, Up 2, KWH, Up 2

December 23, 2015 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CH, Up $.0125; SF, Up $.0175  WH, Up $.0225;  KWH, Up $.0175

·         Despite stable oil prices, Asia closes mostly lower:  Nikkei eases .16%; Shanghai, down .40% while the Hang Seng bucks trend, rises .96%.  Europe rebounding:  FTSE/CAC 40 gain 1.83-1.89%; DAX up 1.74% at mid-day. Pre-market indicators lean towards a higher Wall Street opening with DOW futures +61; NASDAQ, +15 ¼ and S&P 500, + 4 1/4.  Today is a #-cruncher’s delight:  Nov spending and income; core PCE deflator; durable goods, U of MI consumer sentiment, etc.  $, +.041; CLG, +$.55; gold, -$1.40

·         T-storm Weather: Widely scattered thunderstorms dot driest norther areas of Brazil into today, followed by five to seven days with minimal rainfall and some heat as upper-level high pressure and northeast winds dominate.  Therefore, rainfall remains below- to much-below-normal through the end of the month.  Hints of a seasonably wetter pattern exist from aroundJanuary 1-2 forward, but it is unclear to us whether this is because more cool fronts will drift into the region, or if it is incorrect computer model output that is incorporating humidity values that are too high.  This issue will take time to resolve

·         CH, Up $.0125 @ $3.6750;  CK, Up $.0125 @ $3.7375.  The funds liquidated 9 K Tuesday 

·         SF, Up $.03 @ $8.87; SH, Up $.0150 @ $8.87.  Funds sold 4 K SB; 3 K SBM and 5 K SBO

·         WH, Up $.0250 @ $4.74250; WK, Up $.02 @ $4.81.  The funds sold another 5 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM                              &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;         

·      &nbs​p;  March 2016 corn futures closed at $3 66 ¼ on Tuesday, the lowest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 13

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn exports for the up-coming 4-week period forecast at 20-25 mbu per week vs. 23.6 last year

·         T-storm Weather: Several days of intense heat (95 F+) begin Friday in Argentina, but will be preceded and followed by heavy rains—especially central/north.  Heat is not ideal for silking corn; 1.00”-4.00” of rain over the next 10 days

·         Consultant: The condition of the Argentina corn crop is generally rated good to very good at the moment

·         Ethanol margins: $0.14 per gallon—up from $0.13 last week but below $0.57 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 a.m. CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Last year, U.S. soybean exports averaged 56.8 mbu per week for the up-coming 4-week period vs. 74.5 for the previous 4-week period.  The current 4-week avg. is 58.4 with 45-55 expected through the 1st week of January

·         T-storm Weather:  A series of systems parade across soybean areas of southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days, producing 3.00” to 6.00” of rain, which is considerably higher than the 2.00” that is normal of the period

·         ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are projected to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term

·         Concerns about a potential decline in 2016/17 wheat production in India due to a sharp decline in planted acreage

ENERGY

·         Higher: CLG16,+$.55, $36.68; EBG, +$0.49; EBG-CLGH, -$.08, -$.07; RBG +$.0312; NGG, +$.034; HOG, +$.0148

·         EIA estimates: crude, +0.6 (API: -3.6); Gasoline, +1.1 (+3.1); Distillates, +2.1 (+0.8)

·         Cash ethanol markets were easier yesterday:  the Gulf was off 2 ¾; LA dropped 2 to $1.47 ½; both NY and Dallas gave up 2 cents to $1.45 and $1.40; Tampa eased 1 ¼ and Chicago was 2 3/8’s lower at $1.3713/gallon

·         Ethanol RINs firmer:  2014’s gained ¾’s to 70 ¾-72 ¼; 2015’s up 7/8 to 70-71 ½ and 2016’s, also up 7/8 to 70-71 ½

·         The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse gained a penny plus, up $.0115 to -$.1851 per gallon on Tuesday      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                     

·&n​bsp;        Choice boxed beef values were 25-cents higher on Tuesday but are still $5.68 lower compared to last week

·         A few cash cattle sales were made on Tuesday at $122 in the Southern Plains

·         On Tuesday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell 94-cents and is down $3.83 vs. a week ago

·         Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today: Avg. trade est, all hogs and pigs, 101.4%; breeding, 100.9%, market, 101.4%.

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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