MARKETS CH, Down 1, SH, Down 2, WH, Down 2
February 24, 2016 07:10 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.01; SH, Down $.0175; WH, Down $.0275; KWH, Down $.0225
· World stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, as sliding oil prices and fresh signs of global economic weakness weigh on investor sentiment. Hang Seng -1.1%; Nikkei, -0.9% and Shanghai, +0.9%. Europe is weaker as well with FTSE off 1.3% and the DAX down 2.3%. Significant declines noted in U.S. futures: DOW, -132; S&P, -45.79 and the NAS, -15.25. External markets find April crude off $1.14; gold is up $13.70; and the $ Index is .400 higher at 97.885.
· T-storm Weather: Cool fronts develop heavy rainfall across South Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days. Less rain occurs with northward extent as upper-level high pressure lingers near Bahia. A drier pattern is beginning across southern Argentina, while a round of thunderstorms in northern Argentina Thursday-Friday holds the drier pattern until this weekend. In the U.S., a powerhouse system breaks drying across much of the Delta and southeast third of the Corn Belt through today. High winds accompany the system in the eastern Corn Belt and Delta, and a narrow swath of heavy snow occurs along the northwest edge of rain. Next system of significance holds until around one week from now when rain chances increase in at least Corn Belt/Delta
· CH, Down $.01 @ $3.61; CK, Down $.01 @ $3.6575. The funds sold 10 K
· SH, Down $.0175 @ $8.675; SK, Down $.0125 @ $8.7175. Fund activity: sold 7 K SB, 3 K SBM and 7 K SBO
· WH, Down $.0275 @ $4.4525; WK, Down $.0150 @ $4.5425. The funds sold an estimated 6 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports forecast at 36 mbu per week (+/- 5)—about 4 million below the 14/15 pace
· Consultant: Domestic corn prices in Brazil are very strong; big financial incentive to plant safrinha(double-crop) corn. Weather permitting, Mato Grosso—the #1 safrinha producing state—may increase corn acreage compared to 2015
· T-storm Weather: Some thunderstorms are likely to continue across northern Brazil but the pattern is not ideal for well-organized rain over the next 7 to 10 days for Mato Grosso, which may favor additional safrinha corn planting
· Ethanol margins: $0.14 per gallon—up from $0.11 last week but below $0.35 last year. EIA report at 9:30 a.m. CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. weekly soybean exports are forecast at 36 mbu per week—about 7 million more than last year
· Consultant: After several weeks of good rains, no longer any widespread concerns over dryness in Argentina soybeans
· T-storm Weather: Near- or below-normal rain across northern Brazil the next 7-10 days supporting soybean harvest
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to average 10-15 mbu per week into mid-March vs. 17.5 mil last year
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rain (1.00”-2.00”) & strong winds affect U.S. SRW wheat today in Delta/SE third of Corn Belt
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLJ16, -$1.14, $30.73; EBJ, -$0.72; EBJ-CLJH, +$1.83, +$.430; RBH, -$.0093; NGH, -0.013; HOH, -$.0166
· EIA estimates: crude, +2.4 (API: +7.1); Gasoline, -0.3 (+0.6); Distillates, -0.7 (-0.3)
· A mostly weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago down 7/8; New York up 2; Gulf eased ¼; Dallas off 1 ½; Tampa declined 1; and LA was ½ lower at $1.54 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were steady with 2014’s, 2015’s and 2016’s all averaging 73 ¼ and ranging from 73-73 ½
· The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse widened $.0003, and settled at -$.4610 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
·   Choice boxed beef values gained $1.86 on Tuesday, and at $215.14 have increased $3.48 over the past two days
· April live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $135.50—the highest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 4
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 37-cents Tuesday, and at $75.13 is $1.02 lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.02 higher at $66.40. April futures were $0.70 higher and are $3.55 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
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Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com
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