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MARKET TRENDHigher CN Up 3, SN Up 10, WN Up 4

June 17, 2016 08:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Higher:  CN:  Up $.03; SN: Up $.1050; WN: Up $.0350; KWN: Up $.0475

·        MACRO: Equities are mostly higher overseas--UK vote to leave/stay in the EU put on hold due to death of British parliament member.  ASIA: Nikkei, +1.1%; Shanghai, +0.4%; Hang Seng, +0.7%.  EUROPE: Higher as well with CAC, +1.1%; DAX, +1.2%; FTSE, +1.3%.   WALL STREET: Not so in the U.S with futures weaker—DOW, -25; S&P, -4.5; NAS, -4.5. EXTERNALS:  The $ Index is .156 lower @ 94.555; gold is $8.70 in the red at $1,288.10 and  July crude is $.69 higher @  $46.90/barrel

·        T-storm Weather: A huge upper-level high produces intense heat in the Plains, hot weather in the western Corn Belt, but leaves the eastern Corn Belt only slightly above-normal due to near-normal temps from a northeast wind the next few days.  Extreme heat caused a thunderstorm to explode in central Kansason Wed., and as such and for that reason only, we are leaving a low chance for isolated thunderstorms in the western Corn Belt through tonight.  A cool front breaks the heat wave for several days next week .  It is most probable for 1 or 2 areas of thunderstorms to affect central U.S. next week, leading to 0.50"-1.00" of rain

·        CN, Up $.03 @ $4.2825; CZ, Up $.03 @ $4.3875.  More weather relating selling—10 K by the funds onThursday       

·        SN, Up $.1050 @ $11.45; SX, Up $.10 @ $11.2925.   Heavy fund selling—20 K SB; 12 K SBM; 8 K SBO

·        WN, Up $.0350 @ $4.76; WU, Up $.0425 @ $4.89.  The funds sold 4 K, row crop pressure/macro influences

CORN/SORGHUM                                 &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​ 

·        ATI Research: The latest 4-week average for U.S. corn export sales, including old and new crop, is a record 57.5 mbu per week.  This is double last year’s pace and nearly 2 1/3rd  times the five-year average

·        ATI Research: U.S. old-crop sorghum export sales of 2.0 mbu were down 59% vs. 4-week avg. & below last year’s 2.4

·        T-storm Weather: Once coolness eases from later next week forward, it should open the door for an expansion of the upper-level high into the central U.S.  Thunderstorms would form along its northern edge.

·        ATI Research: Accumulated growing degree days since May 1 in Central Illinois are approx. 786 vs. the average of 665

·        December 2016 corn futures on Thu. closed at $4.35 ¾; one year ago, the December 2015 contract settled at $3.73 ¼

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: U.S. old-crop soybean export sales for week end June 9 of 30.0 mbu were up 8% from the prior week, 57% above the 4-week average and sharply higher compared to the year ago total of 4.9 mbu

·        Consultant: Condition of the U.S. soybean crop is starting off better than last year and the long term average

·        U.S. soybean planting progress for week ending June 19 projected to be well above last year’s total of approx. 89%

·        ATI Research: U.S. all wheat export sales for week end June 9 of 28.0 mbu were more than double last year’s 11.6 

·        T-storm Weather: Hot, dry weather likely to support active HRW wheat harvest for Southern Plains short-term

ENERGY

·        Higherr: CLN16, +$0.69, $46.90; EBQ, +$0.94; EBQ-CLN, $1.10,-$.14; RBN, +$.0307;  NGN, +0.001; HON, +$.0301

·        Cash ethanol markets maintained a weak tone on Thursday: Chicago off 2 7/8; New York down 1 ¾; Gulf slipped 1; Dallas declined 1 ½; Tampa eased ½; and LA was 2 lower at $1.78 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s off 1 at 83 ¾-84 ¾; 2015’s down 1 at 83 ¾-84 ¾; and 2016’s declined 1 to 83 ½-84 ½

·        The July RBOB/July inverse increased $.0091 to settle at -.1947/gallon.  Trading -$.1742 this am                          &nb​sp;     

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​              &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;  

·   &​nbsp;    Choice boxed beef values declined $2.94 lower on Thursday to $223.48, and are down $3.37 compared to last week

·        Dressed steer weight week end June 4: 864 lbs., up 5 pounds v. last week, 861.5 for 4-week avg. & 866 last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 23-cents on Thu. to $86.68, but is 47-cents lower vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.57 on Thu. at $82.19.  July futures gained $0.25 and are $4.885 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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