HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Weaker: CU: down $.0375; SU: down $.03; WU: down $.0375; KWU: down $.0325
· MACRO: Kim Jong Un backs off, market give a sigh of relief and turns back to macro issues. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +1.11%; Shanghai, +0.44%; Hang Seng,-0.28%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.31%; FTSE, +0.45%; CAC,+0.45%. WALL STREET—Futures are again higher—DOW,+53; S&P, +4.00; NAS, +13.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.345 @ 93.650; Sep Gold: -$11.40 @ $1,274; Oct crude: -$.19 @ $47.54/bl. Dely: SBM, 62; SBO, 101; SB, 19
· T-storm Weather: A large system produces widespread rain across the central U.S. through Thu., esp. tonight in the Plains, then further to the east Wed.-Thu.; 0.75"-1.50" amounts most common. A trailing system may produce a few thunderstorms around Fri., but well-organized rain is not expected to follow until possibly next week. Rain occurs this week as a transition to a warmer period continues, ultimately leading to near- and above-normal warmth from Sun.-Mon. forward, esp. with westward extent
· CU, down $.0375 @ $3.59; CZ, down $.04 @ $3.7225. The funds opened the week selling 5 K
· SU, down $.03 @ $9.2975; SX, down $.04 @ $9.3425. Funds: sold 10 SB, 4 SBM, 5 SBO. Board crush: $.92, 0; LY, $.89
· WU, down $.0375 @ $4.3725; WZ, down $.0425 @ $4.6350. Fund selling estimated at 5 contracts yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn crop is rated 62% Good/Excellent versus 60% last week and 74% last year. Silking is 97% compared to 99% last year and the 5-year avg. of 98%. Dough is 61% vs. 70% last year and the 5-year average of 62%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 164.8 bpa versus August USDA projection of 169.5
· U.S. sorghum crop is rated 64% Good/Excellent versus 61% last week and 65% last year.
· T-storm Weather: The warmer period for U.S. corn next week is conducive to thunderstorms, but a number of uncertainties exist with near- or below-normal rainfall most probable (wettest north, driest south)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean crop is rated 59% Good/Excellent versus 60% last week and 72% last year. Blooming is pegged at 94%, unchanged from last year & above the 5-year avg. of 93%. Setting pods: 79% vs. 79% last year and the avg. of 75%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. soybean crop is 47.0 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 49.4
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain is most needed across Iowa and northern Missouri given limited totals over the last 14-, 30-, and 60-day periods
· ATI Research: HRS wheat crop estimate decreases 1 mbu to 340 after incorporating ATI Spring Wheat Tour results
· T-storm Weather: Heaviest rain this week focuses to the east of U.S. spring wheat production
ENERGY
· Lower: CLV17, -$0.19 @ $47.54; EBV, -$0.16 @ $50.57;EBV-QCLV, +.02; RBU, +.0001; NGU, -.014; HOU, -.0085
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago up 3/8; New York added ½; Gulf increased 1 ½; Tampa eased ½; Dallas declined 1; but LA was 1 higher at $1.77 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs posted modest declines on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s fell 3/8 to 91-92 ¼
· The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread moved $.0413 to an inverse Monday, now at -$.00330/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values fell 68-cents on Monday to $198.92, and are down $3.80 vs. last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $2.13 v. last week at $115.17/cwt, and is $3.18 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 7-cents on Monday to $93.59, and is $3.41 lower vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $38.60/cwt vs. last week’s $36.24, last month’s $35.39 & last year’s $30.86
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather