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MARKET TREND Weaker CN, down 4, SN, down 3, WN, down 4

May 30, 2017 08:49 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Weaker: CN, down $.0375; SN, down $.02; WN, down $.04; KWN, down $.0425

·       MACRO—Long weekend, stocks around the globe are either mostly lower or taking the day off.  ASIA—Mostly on holiday:  Nikkei, -0.02%; Shanghai, closed;  Hang Seng, closed.   EUROPE—Lower: DAX, -0.08; FTSE, -0.42%; CAC, -0.63. Wall Street-Futures are lower:  DOW, -17; S&P, -2.75; NAS, -1.50.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +.016 @ 97.18; June Gold, -5 @ $1,263; July Crude, -$0.23 @ $49.57

·       T-storm Weather: Cool and mainly dry weather through midweek will be followed by a sharp but brief warm-up with pockets of thunderstroms developing across a large area.  Scattered thunderstorms dot the Delta and Southeast half to 2/3rd’s of the Corn Belt Thu-Fri, while similar activity affects much of the Central U.S. Sat-Sun, including some spring areas. Several says of cool and dry weather follow before a round of warming and thunderstorms redevelop

·       Corn: CN down $.0350 @ $3.7075; CZ down $.0350 @ $3.89.  The funds bought 4 K ahead of the Memorial Day weekend     

·       SB: SN down $.0175 @ $9.2475; SX down $.0125 @ $9.28.   Funds: sold 7 SB, 3 SB & 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $.85, +2; LY; $1.63

·       Wheat: down $.0375 @ $4.3450; WU down $.0375 @ $4.4775.   The funds bought 4 K on Friday     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report expected to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent at 65-70% vs. 72% last year

·       ATI Research: Since 2009, the largest percentage increase in U.S. corn emergence over May 21-28 was 31% in 2013 while the smallest increase was 14% in 2015.  The five-year average increase for the period is 20%

·       T-storm Weather: A moderate to high chance of widespread coverage of at least near-normal rain exists within the Delta, southern half of the Corn Belt & adjacent areas of the Plains over June 1-8; low to moderate chance elsewhere

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 38.3 mbu needed; 45.0 last week.  Milo—3.1 needed; 2.4 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2017 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $9.29 ¼--lowest settlement price for the contract since Sep. 2, 2016

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 13.1 mbu needed; 12.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather: A total of 48% of U.S. soybeans were wetter than normal over the last 14 days

·       ATI Research: Since 2009, the largest percentage increase in U.S. soybean plantings over May 21-28 was 23% in 2014 while the smallest increase was 12% in 2011 and 2012.  The five-year average increase for the period is 16%

·       Wheat in Western Australia and a small part of Europe would benefit from rain

·       T-storm Weather: A low chance for thunderstorms exist within the drying spring wheat belt next week (June 5-9)

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLN17, -0.23 @ $49.57; EBN, -.49 @ $51.80;EBN-QCLN, -.23; RBN,-.0065; NGN, -.118; HON, -.0110

·       A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago up 1 5/8; New York gained 3;Gulf, Tampa and Dallas added 2 ½; and LA was a penny higher at $1.72 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were higher on Friday: 2016’s gained 2 to 68-72; and 2017’s were 1 higher at 68-72 

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0113 on Friday, moving to +$.12260/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​;                 

· &nbs​p;     Choice boxed beef values declined 51-cents on Friday to $245.60 , and are down $1.54 vs. last week

·       Cattle on Feed: May 1 on feed, 102.2% (100.8% avg est); Apr place, 111.1% (106.5%); Apr Marketed, 102.7% (101.8%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 40-cents on Fri. to $89.72, & is up $3.19 compared to a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.09 on Friday to $76.34.  June futures gained $0.875 and are $5.485 above the index       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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