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MARKET TREND Weaker CH, down 2, SH, down 3, WH, down 1

February 2, 2017 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Weaker:  CH, down $.0150; SH, down $.02; WH, down $.0250;  KWH, down $.0175

·        MACRO:  Fed gives no insight on next rate hike; today will see markets focus on numerous earnings reports; initial jobless claims and productivity.   ASIA-Weaker:  Nikkei, down 1.22%; Hang Seng, -0.57%.   EUROPE-mostly higher: FTSE, +0.39%; DAX, -0.04%; CAC, +0.26%.  Wall STREET-futures are decidedly negataive:  DOW, -43; S&P, -5.75; NASDAQ, -16.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, off .278 @ 99.330;  Gold, a risk off day, +$15.10 @ $1,222; and Mar Crude is up $0.23 @ $54.11

·        T-storm Weather: The remnant of a cool front in Brazil and a strong system in Argentina combine to produce widespread rainfall across key areas of South America into early next week.  Highest coverage and totals of 1.50" to 3.00" occur in central Argentina when several strong clusters erupt within Thursday night through Saturday night (especially Friday night and Saturday), including some of the driest and wettest areas

·        Corn: CH down $.0150 @ $3.6675; CK down $.0150 @ $3.7425.  Active fund buying at mid-week, an estimated 15 K

·        SB: SH dn $.02@ $10.3475; SK dn $.02 @ $10.4475.  Funds: bot 10 K SB; 6 K SBO; 0 SBM.  Crush: $.80, -$.04; LY: $.57

·        Wheat: WH down $.0250 @ $4.3125; WK down $.03 @ $4.43. Fund buying placed at 8 K on Wednesday                 

 

    CORN/SORGHUM

·        December 2017 corn futures on Wed. closed at $3.96 ¼--highest settlement price for the contract since June 27, 2016

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 31-43 for 16/17 corn

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rainfall affects northern areas of Brazil from next week forward.  The most likely scenario is for the northern quarter of Brazil corn production to be particularly wet over Feb. 7-15

·        Consultant: Major concern for Argentina corn crop is later planted areas in the north, where weather has turned dry

·        Ethanol grind: Record 1,061,000 barrels/day for week end Jan. 27—up 1.0% v. last week and 10.6% higher vs. last year 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 18-29 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 100-300 K MT; soyoil, 8-30 

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rainfall affects northern areas of Brazil from next week forward.  The most likely scenario is for the northern quarter of Brazil soybean production to be particularly wet over Feb. 7-15

·        CBT March 2017 wheat futures on Wed. closed at $4.33 ¾--highest settlement price for contract since Nov. 2, 2016

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: A strong system develops rain/thunderstorms on U.S. SRW wheat in Delta & eastern Corn Belt Tue.-Wed.  Some snow is possible, but system is more typical of a thundery spring system (as opposed a winter storm)

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLH17, +$0.23 @ $54.11; EBJ, +$0.48; EBH-CLH, $3.11, +$0.19; RBH, +$.0001;NGH, -$0.038; HOH, +$.0125

·        Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Wednesday: Chicago and Gulf firmed 1 ½; New York added ¼; Dallas and Tampa increased ½; but LA was ½ lower at $1.59 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs weakened on Wed.: 2015’s off 4 ½ at 41-43; 2016’s down 3 5/8 at 42-44; and 2017’s eased 3 ½ to 43-44

·        The Mar RBOB/Feb ethanol spread soared $.0655 to +0.09810/gallon, premium to RBOB on record ethanol output    

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nbs​p;                        ​;       

·        Choice boxed beef values firmed 88-cents on Wednesday to $193.75, and are $2.50 higher vs. a week ago

·        ATI Research: USDA Cattle inventory report pegs Jan. 1 feeder cattle supply up 2.2% v. last year & is largest since 2011

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.56 on Wednesday to $82.32, but is still up 70-cents vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.46 on Wed. to $69.07.  February futures were up $0.35 & are $0.355 above the index       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

      



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