HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Weaker: CH, down $.0025; SH, down $.03; WH, down $.0125; KWH, down $.005
· MACRO—Stock markets are mixed today with weakness in Asia linked to that latest Fed minutes, which raised the possibility a U.S. interest rate hike may come sooner than expected. ASIA—Weaker: Nikkei, -0.04%; Shanghai, -0.2%; Hang Seng, -0.4%; EUROPE—Lower: FTSE, -0.10%; DAX, -0.07%. Wall STREET-Pre markets are higher: DOW futures, +15; S&P, +4; NASDAQ, +28. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.086 @ 101.28; Gold, +$6.32 @ $1,238; and April Crude, +$0.66 @ $54.25
· T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms occasionally affect Argentina over the next week, followed by at least one round of better-organized rain later next week; 1.00"-2.00" of rain with locally higher totals over the next 10 days. To the north, occasional thunderstorms continue through Sunday in/near Mato Grosso, followed by higher coverage &amounts from early next week forward; 2.00"-6.00" most probable with highest coverage & amounts in northern areas, including wettest areas of Mato Grosso
· Corn: CH down $.0025 @ $3.7075; CK down $.005 @ $3.7775. The funds bought 6 Kon Wednesday
· SB: SH down $.03 @ $10.1975; SK down $.03 @ $10.3050. Funds: sold 1 SB; 2 SBM; and bought 1 SBO.
· Wheat: down $.0125 @ $4.40; WK down $.01 @ $4.55. Funds bought 4 K on Wednesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA Ag Outlook Forum: Avg. trade est. for 2017 U.S. corn plantings is 90.8 mil acres (range 89.0-92.5; 94.0 in 2016)
· USDA Ag Outlook Forum: Avg. trade est. 17/18 U.S. corn carryout is 2.072 bbu (range 1.583-2.615; 2.320 in 16/17)
· Consultant: Full-season corn yields in Brazil are reported to be very good. Production is expected to surpass last year
· T-storm Weather: Parts of Mato Grosso, Brazil were unusually wet in recent weeks, especially in western corn areas
· Ethanol margins: $0.17 per gallon—up from $0.11 last week but below $0.30 in 2016. EIA report at 10:00 AM CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA Ag Outlook Forum: Avg. trade est. 2017 U.S. soybean plantings is 88.3 mil (range 86.5-92.5; 83.4 in 2016)
· USDA Ag Outlook Forum Avg. trade est. 17/18 U.S. soybean carryout is 0.485 bbu (range 0.311-0.660; 0.420 in 16/17)
· Consultant: Sorriso in central Mato Grosso is largest soybean producing municipality in Brazil. Farmers have harvested ~80% of their crop, but are concerned that quality of last 20% could be impacted by continued wet weather
· USDA Ag Outlook Forum: Avg. trade est. for 2017 U.S. wheat plantings is 46.5 mil acres (range 41.3-52.0; 50.2 in 2016)
· USDA Ag Outlook Forum: Avg. trade est. 17/18 U.S. wheat carryout is 0.969 bbu (range 0.820-1.211; 1.139 in 16/17)
· T-storm Weather: A colder pattern sends most to all U.S. wheat areas below freezing several times from Fri. forward
ENERGY
· Higher: CLJ17, +$0.66 @ $54.25; EBJ, +$0.71; EBJ-CLJ, $2.27, +$0.02; RBH, +$.0134;NGH, +$0.096; HOH, +$.0221
· EIA estimates (API): Crude oil, +3.4 (-0.9); Gasoline, -1.2 (-0.9); Distillates, -0.4 (-4.2)
· Cash ethanol markets continue to be mixed on Wednesday: Chicago gained 5/8; New York steady; Gulf eased ¼; Tampa declined 1; Dallas down ½; while LA was ½ lower at $1.70 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher Wed.: 2015’s up ¼ to 47-47 ½; 2016’s gained ¼ to 47 ¼-47 ¾; & 2017’s climbed ¼ to 47 ½-48
· The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread is at +$0.0227/gallon, premium RBOB and .0098 firmer
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values increased $2.72 on Wednesday to $194.53 and are up $6.19 compared to last week
· Light to moderate cash cattle trade was seen on Wed. with most sales in the South at $125—$5 higher than last week
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout plummeted $4.10 Wed. to $79.76—largest one-day decline since Dec. 16, 2014
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.84/cwt vs. last week’s $43.12, last month’s $41.01 & last year’s $46.22
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
 
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Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com