HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Weaker:  CH, down $.01; SF, down $.0975; WH, down $.0075;  KWH, down $.0125

·        MACRO:  European terrorists attacks along with mounting U.S.-China tensions ad to market uncertainty.  ASIA-mostly lower:  Nikkei, +0.53%;  Hang Seng, -0.47%; Shanghai, -0.50%.   EUROPE—muted:  FTSE, +0.04%; DAX, -0.01%; CAC, +0.26%.  Wall STREET:  Futures point to a positive start: DOW, +26; S&P, +3.75; NASDAQ, +5.00.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.260 @103.360;  Gold, -$7.00 @ $1,133.50;  Jan Crude, +$0.23 @ $53.35 

·        T-storm Weather: Two more systems move across Argentina over the next week, triggering thunderstorms Wed.-Thu. & again around Sunday; 1.00"-3.00" of rain is probable in key areas, while less rain occurs to immediate south & north. In Brazil, upper-level high pressure suppresses rain this week, but most notably across the northeast ~35% & ~25% of first-crop corn & soybean production where it limits rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days.  However, much of this area received significant rain recently

·        Corn: CH down $.01 @ $3.5225; CK down $.0150 @ $3.5850.  The funds opened the week selling 7 K  

·        SB: SF dn $.0950 @ $10.12; SH, dn $.0950 @ $10.2250.  Funds—Sold 6 SB, 5 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.67, +.02; LY, $.62

·        Wheat: WH down $.0075 @ $4.0425; WK down $.0075 @ $4.1675.  Fund selling totaled 3 K on Monday                      

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Consultant: Weekend rains were beneficial for corn in Argentina.  The additional soil moisture and the forecast for more rain later this week will encourage producers in Argentina to increase their planting activities

·        T-storm Weather: Data show that Cordoba (~30% of Argentina corn production) missed significant rain amounts this weekend, making this state an area to monitor at midweek given unusual dryness still dates to early November

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.427 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: Nationwide Brazilian soybean harvest est. is increased 2.0 MMT to 103.0 MMT due to favorable weather

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 482 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: In Brazil, the setup becomes conducive to better rains in southern areas with time, which is where rain would be most ideal (most notably Rio Grande do Sul where little to no rain occurred over the last two weeks)

·        ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 597 mbu compared to 446 mbu last year

·        T-storm Weather: A strong system attempts to move across the central U.S. over Sat.-Mon.  Recent history suggests that it is most probable to produce organized rain across the Delta & SE half of the Corn Belt, benefiting SRW wheat

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLF17, +$0.23 @ $52.35; EBG, +$0.52;  EBG-CLF, $3.11, +$0.31; RBF, +$.0106; NGF, -$.034; HOF, +$.0044

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago down 7/8; New York and Gulf gained 2 ½; Dallas declined 1 ½; Tampa unchanged; and LA was 7 ¼ lower at $1.84 ¾ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs declined slightly: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s were all down ¾ to 92-95 ½

·        The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol inverse gained $.0122 on Monday, increasing to -$0.02910/gallon         

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​;                        ​        

·        Choice boxed beef values were 76-cents higher on Monday at $195.39, and are up $5.83 compared to a week ago

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.87 v. last week to $111.39/cwt, and is $5.25 low

·        er vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass gained 88-cents on Monday to $77.99, and is up $2.10 vs. last week 

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.34/cwt vs. last week’s $41.13, last month’s $38.43 & last year’s $40.62     

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather