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Market Trend Trading resumes at 8:30 am, following the Thanksgiving Holiday

November 29, 2013 07:22 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Trading resumes at 8:30 am, following the Thanksgiving Holiday 

·         Asian stocks were mixed Friday with the Nikkei off .4%; Hong Kong and Taiwan posted gains; South Korea and Australia slipped. In Europe, the DAX was up .1% early; the CAC-40 was holding steady and the UK’s FTSE was .2% higher. U.S. futures point to a better start on Black Friday with the S&P leaning 7 ½ higher; the Nasdaq, up 20 ½ and the Dow, 35 higher.  The $ Index is off 1/5 of a point; energies are mostly firmer and gold is $9 higher.

·         T-storm Weather: No changes to the T-storm Weather® Outlook: Scattered t-storms linger over the next few days in NE Brazil, improving soil moisture.   T-storms are expected to occasionally form along the southern edge of a developing high Friday-Saturday and continuing one week with notably drier weather in key areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil.  In Argentina, a period of dry weather is beginning, and dry weather is needed because several corn and soybean locations received 9.00” – 13.00” the past 30 days. A few storms cannot be ruled out, especially Monday-Tuesdayforward, but a major rain event is not foreseen. Completely dry weather is very likely needed for corn planting to resume.

·         Corn:   Steady.  The funds bought 3 K ahead of Thanksgiving.  Zero Corn deliveries

·         Soybeans:   Steady. Funds sold 6 K SB, 4 K SBM and 4 K SBO.  Zero SBM deliveries, 1,371 SBO

·         Wheat:  Steady:   Funds purchased 5 K Wednesday. 1,204 Wheat deliveries

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         0 corn deliveries versus 0-200 expected

·         Export Sales Estimates:  corn expected at 31-43 versus 11 needed; milo, 2.8/wk needed

·         Less corn, more soybean acres in Argentina, cuts corn area 4% to 3.3 million ha; beans at 20.45, up from 20.2

·         Corn ground for ethanol rises 2.5 mbu to 100.2 million in latest week; YTD approximately 927 mbu, 23 above LY

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Australia government says no to ADM, GrainCorpLTD take-over blocked; shares fall 22%

·         Export Sales Estimate: soybeans, 26-48 versus 3.7/wk needed; SBM, 150-300 versus 86/week; SBO, 10-25

·         Wheat Export Sales Estimates: 14-23 against 11 per week needed

·         CNG&OIC analyst sees possibility for 13/14 PRC wheat imports reaching 8 MMT (USDA:  7.7)

·         IGC lifts global wheat production forecast 2 MMT to 698, 8 below the USDA’s November forecast

·         Argentina Ag Minister on wheat crop:  8 .5 MMT but no new official forecast since October release

·         South Korea reports 200 K purchase of 2015 soybeans from U.S.

ENERGY

·         The energy markets have QCLF14,+$.26 at $92.56; QRBF14, +$0.0005; QNGF14, +$.023 and QHOF14, -$.0005

·         Cash ethanol markets were sharply mixed with news sources putting NY and Chicago 23-26 cents higher with the Gulf up 25 cents.  LA was unchanged; Dallas and Tampa both fell 4 cents

·         RINs:  2012’s were ¾’s higher at $.2550-$.27; 2013’s also gained ¾’s to  26.50-28.00 & 2014’s picked up 1, $. 27-$.29

·         The spread between December RBOB & December ethanol tugged in nearly 8 cents to $.8843/gallon on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                

·        &n​bsp;Choice boxed beef values gained $1.13 Wednesday and have increased $3.97 over the last four trading days

·         Cash cattle traded Wednesday at mostly $132, up $1 to $2 from last week

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 70-cents Wednesday and has lost $1.38 over the last three days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price eased 67-cents Wednesday to $80.06

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

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