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Market Trend Trading begins at 8:30 biases: Steady to Lower

January 2, 2014 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Trading begins at 8:30—biases: Steady/Lower

·         Global markets were mixed on the 1st day of the New Year.  Two separate Chinese manufacturing indices showed a slight decline in December activity, suggesting a slowing economy.  Japan was closed while the Shanghai Composite fell .3%; S Korea markets dropped 2.2% and Malaysia and Thailand were also lower.  EU equity markets are lower: Frances’s CAC-40 is off 1%; the DAX, -.5% and the FTSE, -.33%.   US futures are weaker:  S&P, down 3; Dow, off 16 and the Nasdaq, 10 lower.  Gold is up $15; energies are mostly weaker and the $ Index is up ½ point at 80.7 on the March

·         Wire services report ¼ to 3/4” showers for Cordoba, Santa Fe and N BA the past 48 hours.  More scattered showers are likely today, heavier North, then dry through Monday with temps running near to above normal. La Pampa and S BA was mostly dry the past 2 days. In Brazil, Mato Grosso received ¼ to ¾” the past two days; Parana and RGDS had from ¼ to 1 ½” during the period.  Scattered showers should be fairly common for the southern growing areas the next few days while amounts in the north will be a little less.  The far NE areas of South Africa had limited rainfall over the holiday; temps reach 100+ on the high side. Light showers possible east with the western regions generally dry through Monday

·         Mar Corn closed Down $.0150 at $4.22 Tues; May Down $.0150 at $4.30250.  The funds sold 2 K to close out 2013

·         Jan SB closed Down $.1575 at $13.1250; Mar SB Down $.1625 at $12.9250.  Funds sold 6 K SB, 5 K SBM and bought 2 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat closed Up $.0475 at $6.0525; May Wheat Up $.0450 at $6.12.  The funds bought 3 K on Tuesday

 

CORN/SORGHUM

  • Export demand for corn remains light, but it is the holidays
  • Corn closes out 2013 as the worst performer on the S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities, losing nearly 40%
  • South African white maize prices soar to a 17-year high, 2013 output down 20% and its very dry in the North West

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Deliveries:   No SB, 1 SBM and 749 SBO

·         Soybean futures fall 7 ½% in 2013; wheat prices off 22%--Dow Jones

·         India announces 160 K MT export tender with bids due January 8; trade talk has over 500 K offered through mid-Jan

  • DDGS said to be displacing SBM in some hog and poultry rations
  • China said to have booked some South American beans for June and July to start the week
  • 7 MMT/11% larger world canola crop boosting use in biodieasel, October US at 82 mil lbs versus only 16 last year
  • Dryness in Central Turkey’s wheat growing areas are a concern with little rain expected the next 7-10 days
  • Indian Ag Attache expects producers there to plant 8+% MORE wheat acres planted through December 20

ENERGY

·         Energy markets—mostly lower:  QCLG14,-$0.23 to $98.19; QRBG, -$0.0242; QNGG, +$.023 and QHOG, -$.0336

·         Cash ethanol markets were again mixed ahead of the New Year:  NY was steady; LA gained 2 cents; Dallas and Tampa were both a penny higher while Chicago and the Gulf each declined 2 cents per gallon

·         RINs found 2012’s up 1 to 32 ½-34; 2013’s gained 2/3’s of a cent to 33-34 ¼ and & 2014’s were 33-34 ¼, up 3/8’s

·         The January RBOB/January ethanol spread widened nearly 3 cents, to $.8748/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                 

    Choice boxed beef values gained $2.72 yesterday and have increased $3.02 over the last four trading days
  • USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for LW was $134.22, up $3.74 from the week before and a new record high
  • After falling $2.66 over the previous two trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 25-cents yesterday
  • The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.11 yesterday to $77.39

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Advance Trading, Inc. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Please see http://www.advance-trading.com/index.php/disclaimer for full disclaimer

 

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