HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Steady/Firmer--CZ: Unch; SX: Up $.0275; WZ: Up $.0125; KWZ: Up $.0050
· MACRO: “Markets are searching for the least worse option between the two U.S. candidates. One is a known market bad, the other an unknown bad”—wire service. ASIA: Nikkei, +.84%; Shanghai, +0.59%; Hang Seng, +1.09%. EUROPE: FTSE, -0.26%; DAX, -0.98%; CAC, -0.65%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets are higher--DOW Futures, +22; S&P, +3.75; NAS, +31.17. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.06 @ 95.27; Gold, -$3.20 @ $1,340.90; Nov Crude, -$.59 @ $45.347/barrel.
· T-Storm Weather: A large area of upper-level high pressure keeps most of the central U.S. dry into at least early next week. That said, a few showers occur each day within the eastern third to half of the Corn Belt (0.20” to 0.40” amounts), & a few showers cannot be ruled out in western HRW wheat areas of central & southern Plains Fri.-Sat. when a weak wave of energy passes. A pocket of coolness associated with the system keeps temps only near- to below-normal in the Corn Belt & Delta through Fri.-Sat.
· Corn: CZ Unch @ $3.29; CH Unch @ $3.39. The funds were heavy sellers yesterday, 15 K
· SB: SX Up $.0275 @ $9.48; SF Up $.0275 @ $9.5425. Funds: sold 8 SB, 6 SBM, 4 SBO. Oct crush, $.74, -$.05; LY: $0.93
· Wheat: WZ Up $.0125 @ $3.9725; WH Up $.01 @ $4.2075. The funds sold 5 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn: Mature stage pegged at 73% vs. 66% for last year & 64% avg.; harvest at 15% vs. 16% last year & avg. of 19%. Good/Excellent of 74% is steady v. last week (68% in ‘15). Sorghum: Harvest at 34% vs. 35% last year & 32% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.915 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.555 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 35 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 55 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Most U.S. corn areas turn mild this weekend and early next week in advance of a series of storm systems. Each system is probable to generate rain within the Plains and northwest third of Corn Belt starting Oct. 3-5
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean dropping leaves at 68% vs. 69% last year and the avg. of 64%; harvest at 10% vs. 17% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 13%. Good/Excellent crop ratings of 73% are steady vs. last week and above 62% in 2015
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout at 219 mbu, while 16/17 carry-out is est. at 334 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Rain next week within the Plains and northwest third of the Corn Belt likely results in deteriorating conditions for soybean harvest in affected areas. In contrast, little to no rain continues to the east
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 499 mbu compared to 446 last year
· T-storm Weather: Dry weather for Argentina wheat through Thu.; light rain (0.25”-0.75”) occurs late-week forward
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLX16, -$.59, $45.34; EBX,-$0.65; EBX-CLX, $1.39,-$.03; RBX, -.0205; NGX, +.005; HOX, -$.0188
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Monday: Chicago firmed ½; New York eased ½; Gulf declined ½; Dallas eased 2; Tampa down ½; and LA was 1 ¼ lower at $1.67 ¾ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s off 1/8 to 87-87 ½; 2015’s down 1/8 to 87-87 ½; and 2016’s eased 1/8 to 86 ¾-87 ¼
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse lost $.0225 yesterday, closing at-.14660/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 23-cents on Monday to $187.04, and are $1.49 higher compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.47 v. last week to $105.89/cwt and is $22.72 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.51 on Monday to $77.98, but is still $1.67 lower vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $24.51/cwt vs. last week’s $25.15, last month’s $32.27 & last year’s $37.10
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather