HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: Slightly higher--CZ: Up $.0075; SF: Up $.0825; WZ: Up $.0075; KWZ: Up $.0125
· MACRO: World markets are mostly lower as results from Election Day in the U.S. are awaited. ASIA: Weaker: Nikkei, -1.46%; Hang Seng, -0.11%. EUROPE: Mixed at the moment: FTSE, +0.09%; DAX, -0.28%. WALL STREET: Retracing some of Monday’s strength: DOW, -22; S&P, -4; NASDAQ, -8. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.007 @ 97.80; Gold, +$2.45 @ $1,280.75; Dec Crude, -$0.22 @ $44.66. Deliveries: 164 SB
· T-storm Weather: Dissipating cool fronts trigger thunderstorms and produce heavy rain of 2.50" to 5.00" across much of Center-West, North, and Southeast Brazil over the next 10 days, increasing soil moisture for newly-planted corn and soybeans, and breaking dryness in/near Bahia. Areas to the south also receive rain when cool fronts pass, but only near- or below-normal rain is expected in much of Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay because a 5-7 day period of drying most likely begins in 1 week
· Corn: CZ up.0075 @ $3.47; CH up $.01 @ $3.5625. The funds sold 4 K on Monday
· SB: SX up $.0825 @ $9.975; SF up $.085 @ $10.07. Funds: Bot 6 SB; 5 SBM; and 2 SBO.
· Wheat: WZ up $.0075 @ $4.1975; WH up $.01 @ $4.2875. The funds sold 2 K Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2016 corn on Monday closed at $3.46 ¼, the lowest settlement price for the contract since Oct, 12
· USDA pegs corn harvest at 86% vs. 91% last year & avg. of 85%. Sorghum harvest at 84% v. 83% last year & 78% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.533 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 37 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Beginning Nov. 15-16, multiple hints suggest that areas of high pressure will prevent rainfall from affecting corn in Argentina, southern Brazil and Paraguay—potentially lasting more than one week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean harvest at 93% vs. 94% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 91%
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 426 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Rain since Oct. 15 was near-normal in most soybean areas of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. An exception is area of dryness from/adjacent Bahia, Goias & Minas Gerais, including 15% of Brazil soybean production
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 602 mbu compared to 446 last year
· T-storm Weather: An unusually dry and mild period continues over the next week for U.S. HRW wheat areas of the Plains as upper-level high pressure in the western U.S. prevents storm systems from organizing rain
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLZ16, -$.23 @ $44.66; EBF, +$0.09; EBF-CLF, $0.87, +$0.19; RBZ, -$.0046; NGZ, -$.111; HOZ, -$.0010
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago up 1 ¼; New York down ¾; Gulf gained 3; Tampa firmed 1; Dallas eased ½; and LA was 1 ¼ higher at $1.77 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs declined: 2014’s, 2015’s and 2016’s all were 1 ¼ lower at 86-87 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse is -0.18680/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef declined $1.43 on Monday to $187.27, but is still up $2.51 vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.16 v. last week to $104.31/cwt, but is $26.10 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.22 on Monday to $73.96, and is up 50-cents compared to last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $23.26/cwt vs. last week’s $23.64, last month’s $20.38 & last year’s $27.76
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com