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MARKET TREND sharply lower CK, Down 4, SK, Down 23 to 24

April 22, 2016 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-sharply lower:  CK, Down $.0450; SK, Down 23-24; WK, down $.13; KWK, Down 13-14

·        Global equity markets are mixed as concerns over the sustainability of latest rally re-emerge. ASIA:  the Nikkei closed up 1.2%; Shanghai gained .23% while the Hang Seng lost .72%.  EUROPE:  weaker at mid-day with the FTSE off .77%; the DAX is down .55% and the CAC 40 is .30% lower. U.S. PRE-MARKETS: Mixed with DOW futures, +8; S&P 500, +2.75; NAS, -2.50.  EXTERNALS:  June WTI is up 10-11 cents @ $43.28; Gold is $2 weaker @ $1,247.30 & the $ Index is up ¼ of a point at 94.925

·        T-storm Weather: Several days of dry and increasingly mild weather are forecast across a large area, ultimately followed by the development of a stormy pattern as a near-classic setup for multiple rains unfold; the next rounds of significant rainfall focus on the northern third of the Corn Belt and Plains Sunday-Monday (with a few showers and thunderstorms elsewhere), followed by the onset of rain and thunderstorms elsewhere from around Wednesday. forward.  Therefore, away from northern areas, conditions for planting initially improve, especially in areas that received less than 1.00" over the last two weeks

·        CK, Down $.0450 @ $3.80; CN, Down $.0450 @ $3.8525.  More fund buying with 15 K purchased on Thursday

·        SK, Down $.2425 @ $9.9450; SN, Down $.24 @ $10.0350.   Fund activity:   Bought 15 K SB; 10 K SBM and 5 K SBO

·        WK, Down $.13 @ $4.8275; WN, Down $.1275 @ $4.9075.  The funds bought 8 K Thursday      

 

CORN/SORGHUM                           &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​       

·        May 2016 corn futures traded $4.02 Thu.—1st time above $4.00 since 10/27/15—but settled $0.10 ¼ lower at $3.84 ½

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for week end April 14 of 47.4 mbu up 6% v. prior week & 31% from 4-week avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn export prospects for the balance of 15/16 & into 16/17 seem to be improving.  Although the EU is unlikely to import corn from the U.S., its needs in the coming year will be important in the export equation

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales week ending April 14 of 1.2 mbu were down 64% from year ago total of 3.3

·        T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 1.00"-2.00" of rain breaks the heat wave across southern 35% of winter corn Mon.-Tue.  A drier air mass to the north keeps amounts there lower, most notably in/near Goias where intense drought worsens

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for week end April 14 of 15.0 mbu were up 7%  vs. the prior week and 15%  above the 4-week average.  This was also nearly four times the year ago total of 3.8 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Unneeded rain affects central Argentina when a strong cool front passes Sunday-Monday, but the brunt of heavy rainfall only clips far northeastern wet soybeans

·        ATI Research: U.S. all wheat export sales for week end April 14 of 10.8 mbu were 57% above the prior 4-week average

·        T-storm Weather: Widespread above-normal rain forecast next week, including wettest U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains

ENERGY

·        Mixed:  CLM16, +$0.113,  $43.29; EBM, +$.03; EBM-CLM, +$1.24, -$0.11; RBM, -$.0027; NGM, +0.011; HOM, +$.0064

·        Cash ethanol markets were steady to weaker on Thursday: Chicago down 1; New York off 7/8; Gulf unchanged; Tampa eased 1; Dallas declined 1; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.73 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s added 1 5/8 to 75-76 ½; 2015’s climbed ¾ to 74 ½-76; & 2016’s up 5/8 to 74-75 ½

·        The May RBOB/May Ethanol inverse gave up $.0161 yesterday to settle at -$.0250/gallon                      

&​nbsp;LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            <​wbr>                       &nb​sp;                 

·        Choice boxed beef values declined $2.05 on Thursday and at $220.72 are $3.71 lower vs. last week 

·        Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 101.0%; Mar placements, 107.4%; Marketed in Mar 107.8%

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $2.38 higher Thu. at $79.92, and is up $2.61 vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.34 Thu. to $67.36.  May futures were $0.20 lower but are still $9.665 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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