HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Report Day—11:00 AM CST!--Corn, Down 2: Soybeans, Up 3-4; Wheat, Down 1-2
· Asia mixed, Europe slightly higher ahead of the December jobs report with additions of 196 K expected and the unemployment rate pegged at an unchanged 7.0%. Implications for Fed stimulus policy will be closely watched. Overseas—Nikkei, +.2%; Hang Seng, +.3%; Shanghai, -.7%; early trading has EU markets all .5 to .7% higher. US futures point to a positive start with the Dow index leaning .2% higher and the S&P, +.3%. Externals: gold, +.25%; energies, higher; $ Index, +.010 at 81.145
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms focused on central Argentina overnight, but missed the southern 40% - 50% of corn and soybeans. Although t-storms have been returning to Argentina in recent weeks, 45-day deficits are significant across / near Buenos Aires where many locations were 6.00” – 12.00” drier than over the same period last year; Buenos Aires was the #1 corn- and soybean-producing province over the last five years – Cordoba shifted to #2 by a slight margin. At least one week of drying follows, and heat returns Monday and continues next week. The next chance for thunderstorms likely holds until January 17-18
· Mar Corn Down $.02 at $4.10; May Down $.0225 at $4.18. Funds sell 5 K yesterday
· Jan SB Up $.0375 at $13.00; Mar SB Up $.0250 at $12.7625 Funds: even on SB and SBM, bought 2 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.0150 at $5.8275; May Wheat Down $.020 at $5.8750. The funds sold 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· New lows were made Thursday for all 2014 corn contracts ahead of today’s USDA reports set for release at 11:00 CST
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ATI Research: Weekly corn export inspections have been averaging 31-32mbu per week and the model suggests a continuation of that level for the upcoming 4-week period. However, we are inclined to fade that number by 4-5mbu
· Average trade guess for U.S. corn crop in today’s USDA Crop Production report is 14.060Bbu vs. 13.989 in Nov.
· Average trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks in today’s USDA Grain Stocks report is 10.770Bbu. vs. 8.030 last year
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Average trade guess for U.S. 13/14 corn carryout in today’s WASDE is 1.844Bbu compared to 1.792 in December
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Record unshipped soybean export sales suggest a strong January export program
· Average trade guess for U.S. soybean crop in today’s USDA Crop Production report is 3.278Bbu vs. 3.258 in Nov.
· Average trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks in today’s Grain Stocks report is 2.170Bbu. vs. 1.970 last year
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Average trade guess for U.S. 13/14 soybean carryout in today’s WASDE is 151mbu compared to 150 in December
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New lows were made Thursday for all 2014 CBT wheat contracts ahead of today’s USDA reports
· ATI Research: All wheat export sales activity of late “routine”; suggests 15-20mbu shipments per week short-term
· Average trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. all wheat stocks in today’s Grain Stocks report is 1.410Bbu. vs. 1.671 last year
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Average trade guess for U.S. 13/14 all wheat carryout in today’s WASDE is 559mbu compared to 575 in December
ENERGY
· Energy markets—higher: QCLG14,+$0.97 at $92.63; QRBG, +$0.0155; QNGG,+$.0001 andQHOG, +$.0111
· A mixed tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up 2; Gulf off 1 ½; Dallas and Tampa were ½ higher; New York declined 4; and LA climbed 4 to $2.68 per gallon
· RINs declined: 2012’s were 1 ½ lower at 28-30; 2013’s off 2 at 29-30 ½; & 2014’s down ¼ at 29 ½-31
· The February RBOB/February ethanol spread closed in a little over 2 ½ cents, to $.7176/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values gained $1.92 yesterday to a new record high of $212.05/cwt
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Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $139 to $140 while packers bid $135. Cattle LW set a record high $137
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After falling $1.38 the day before, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value formed 64-cents yesterday
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The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed a penny yesterday to $78.25
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather