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MARKET TREND Mostly weaker CU Down 1, SU Down 3, WU Unchanged

August 31, 2016 07:35 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker--CU: Down $.0025; SU: Down $.03; WU: Down $.0050; KWU: Up $.0050

·        MACRO:  Global equity markets—mixed, listless, marking time ahead of FridayU.S. jobs report.   ASIA:  Nikkei,+.97%; Hang Seng, -.17%; Shanghai, +.35%.  EUROPE:  CAC, +.52%; DAX, -.18%; FTSE, -.25%.   WALL STREET: Futures are again lower—DOW, -12; S&P, -1.00; NAS, -2.5.   EXTERNALS:  $ Index, -.021 @ 96.020; Gold is $0.80 higher @ $1,313.80; Oct Crude is down $.29 @ $46.06/barrel.  Del’y: Corn--440; SRW--330; HRW—4; SBO--985; SBM--0; SB--0

·        T-Storm Weather: A cool front slams through the U.S. Corn Belt today, with maximum temperatures transitioning from the 80s-90s to the 60s-70s across a large area.  Coolness lingers through Friday, then breaks Sat.-Sun. in response to a large-scale feed of southwest winds that develop as upper-level high pressure assembles across the Southeast.  A period of dry weather accompanies the cool front across the central part of the country through at least Saturday

·        Corn: CU Down $.0025 @ $3.0375; CZ Down $.0025 @ $3.1550.  More fund selling—15 K on Tuesday  

·        SB:  SU Dn $.03 @ $9.6250; SX Dn $.07 @ $9.4375.  Funds: sold 15 SB; 8 SBM; and 4K SBO.  Sep crush, +$.04 $.85; LY: $1.16

·        Wheat:  WU Down $.0050 @ $3.6275; WZ Down $.0025 @ $3.92.  Fund sell an estimated 5 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Consultant: For corn in far eastern Corn Belt states of Ohio, Michigan and eastern Indiana, the recent rains are coming too late to be much help for crops that were previously stressed due to high temperatures and a lack of soil moisture

·        T-storm Weather: Near- & above-normal temps re-develop across Corn Belt Sat.-Sun. & continue for sustained period

·        ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports are projected to run in the 45-55 mbu per week range

·        ATI Research: On average, an additional 17% of U.S. corn moves into the dent stage from Aug. 28-Sep. 4

·        Ethanol margins: $0.31 per gallon—up from $0.22 last week but below $0.35 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: Resumption of warm temps next week after projected cool spell to help fill out remaining soybean pods

·        ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to average 30-35 mbu per week

·        T-storm Weather: A stormy period re-develops Sat.-Sun. across northwest half of U.S. soybeans.  Multiple strong and severe thunderstorms result with 1.00” to 2.00” of rain probable Sep. 4-9.  Less- to much-less rain occurs to the east

·        Chicago September 2016 wheat futures traded $3.61 ½ Tue.—lowest price for a nearby contract since Aug. 24, 2006

·        ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 20-25 mbu over the next 4 weeks vs. 21.7 last year  

ENERGY

·        Weaker:  CLV16, -$0.29, $46.06; EBV,-$0.45; EBV-CLV, $1.88, -$.14; RBV, -.0201;  NGV, +.007; HOV, -$.0138

·        EIA estimates: crude, +1.2 (API: +0.9); Gasoline, -1.0 (-1.6); Distillates, +0.3 (+3.0)

·        A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago off 1/8; New York down ½; Gulf eased ¼; Tampa declined 2; Dallas slipped 1 ½; and LA was ¾ lower at $1.57 ¾ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s down ½ at 88 ¾-89 ¾; 2015’s off ½ at 88 ¾-89 ¾; and 2016’s eased ½ to 88 ½-89 ½

·        The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread shed $.0126, declining to .01430/gallon yesterday 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                      &n​bsp;              

·  &n​bsp;     Choice boxed beef values were $1.80 lower on Tuesday at $196.62, and are down $3.77 vs. a week ago

·        October live cattle futures on Tuesday made a new contract low of $103.775, but settled $2.40 higher at $107.475

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 24-cents on Tuesday to $76.55, and is up $1.87 vs. last week 

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.27 on Tue. to $66.34.  October futures gained $0.675 but are $4.29 below the index

: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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