HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker: CN, down $.0125; SN, Up $.0025; WN, down $.01; KWN, down $.0325
· MACRO—Loose lips sink ships, or at least wire services ascribing this morning’s treasury weakness to classified information furor; $ weakens. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.25%; Shanghai, +0.75%; Hang Seng, -0.14%. EUROPE—Mostly weaker: DAX, -0.09%; FTSE, +0.58%; CAC, -0.33%. Wall Street-Futures are mostly higher: DOW, +17; S&P, -0.25; NAS, +3.00. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.361 @ 98.245; June Gold, +4.2 @ $1,234; June Crude, +$0.25 @ $49.10.
· T-storm Weather: Two strong systems trigger thunderstorms through the weekend, including multiple rounds of thunderstorms in central and western corn and soybean areas. Thunderstorms begin within the northern third of the Corn Belt and Plains today (including more of Wisconsin and northern Iowa than indicated earlier), then the northwest half of the central U.S. Wed.-Thu., then the southeast half Fri.-Sat. before ending Sat. or Sun., effectively breaking drying over the next five to six days
· Corn: CN down $.0125 @ $3.6650; CZ down $.0075 @ $3.8450. The funds opened the week selling 10 K
· SB: SN up $.0025 @ $9.6550; SX down $.0050 @ $9.6025. Funds: bot 2 SB & 2 BO, sold 2 SBM. Board Crush: $.85, -2; LY; $.91
· Wheat: WN down $.01 @ $4.2225; WU down $.0075 @ $4.3725. Fund liquidation on Monday totaled 8 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of May 14 at 71% vs. 73% last year and the 5-year average of 70%
· T-storm Weather: A mild and dry U.S. weather scenario is unlikely next week because at least a couple systems are probable to flow along the edge of a seasonable to cool air mass to produce pockets of rain from May 22-27
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop is unchanged this week at 92.0 MMT. Dry weather in areas of central and eastern Brazil might trim off the top end of the safrinha (double crop) corn
· ATI Research: The model puts near-term U.S. corn exports at 46.5 mbu per week down from 52.3 mbu last week. The model range is 41.5-51.5. Our bias is in the lower half of the range and unchanged from 40-45 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of May 14 at 32% vs. 34% last year and the 5-year average of 32%
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 111.0 MMT and might increase another 1.0 MMT
· T-storm Weather: Total rainfall of 1.50" to 3.50" affects the western half of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the central and southern Plains over the next week, while lesser totals of 1.00" to 2.00" occur to the east
· ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent -2% to 51%; winter wheat model pegs ‘17 crop @ 1.236 bbu; -24 mbu v. last week
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is projected to continue to range from 20-25 mbu/week
ENERGY
· Up: CLM17, +$0.25 @ $49.10; EBN, +0.22 @ $52.04; EBN-QCLN, -$0.02; RBM,+$.0093; NGM, +$0.013; HOM, +$.0123
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago and New York fell 1; Gulf off ¼; Tampa up 1; Dallas increased ½; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.63 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs continued to firm on Monday: 2016’s up 1 ¾ to 48 ½-50; and 2017’s gained 1 7/8 to 48 ¾-50
· The June RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0203 Monday, widening to +$.08840/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ;Choice boxed beef values increased $1.71 on Monday to $249.40, and are up $7.96 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $7.32 v. last week at $137.28/cwt, but is up $4.72 v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass firmed 24-cents on Monday to $83.06, and is $4.60 higher vs. the prior week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $46.84/cwt vs. last week’s $45.67, last month’s $42.43 & last year’s $48.23
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather