HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mostly Lower: CZ: down $.0150 ; SX: up $.0375; WZ: down $.0125;  KWZU: down $.01

·        MACRO: One trader—“the outlook (economic) is mostly positive, a lot of risk factors out there”.   ASIA—Mostly weaker: Nikkei, +0.20%; Shanghai, -0.56%; Hang Seng, -0.33%.  EUROPE: Firmer: DAX, +0.96%; FTSE, +0.21%; CAC, +0.54%.   WALL STREET—Futures are Lower—DOW, -25; S&P, -2.25; NAS, -1.25. EXTERNALS:  $ Index: -.412 @ 91.605; Sep Gold: +$2.50 @ $1,336; Oct crude: -$0.17 @ $48.99/bl.  Deliveries: SBM, 180; SBO, 432; C, 195; HRW, 204; RR, 147; SB, 145: SRW, 18

·        T-storm Weather: Most corn, soybean, and wheat areas of the central U.S. will be dry over the next 10 days as a large upper-level high blocks storm systems from passing.  Temperatures warm from west to east over today-Saturday as maximums return to the 80s in the Plains and 70s in the Corn Belt for an extended period of time; a significant frost or freeze is not on the immediate horizon

·        CZ, down $.0150 @ $3.5950; CH, down $.0125 @ $3.7225.  The funds bought 6 K yesterday                 

·        SX, up $.0325 @ $9.7450; SF, up $.0325 @ $9.84.  Funds: Bot 5 SB, 2 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board crush: $.90, +1; LY, $.87

·        WZ, down $.0125 @ $4.4450; WH, down $.0075 @ $4.6625.  The funds bought 3 K on Wednesday                        

CORN/SORGHUM

·        T-storm Weather: Temps remain cool across the Corn Belt through today, as highs hold in the 60s-70s and/or lows dip into 40s—far warmer than minimum threshold of a killing frost.  Temps then quickly moderate west to east into Sat.

·        USDA WASDE on Sep. 12: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. corn crop: 14.000 bbu (range: 13.821-14.195), 14.153 in Aug.

·        ATI Research: The U.S. corn export model slipped 700 K bushel per week to 32.8 million with a 29-38 mbu range; our bias is in the mid-to-high 20s

·        Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon—down vs. $0.31 last week & well below $0.49 in 2016.  EIA report at 10:00 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA WASDE on Sep. 12: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. soybean crop: 4.321 bbu (range: 4.179-4.417), 4.381 in Aug.

·        ATI Research: Our bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is 25-30 mbu per week

·        T-storm Weather: Although some weather models show 0.50”-1.50” of rain on Sep. 12 in much of IL, IN and OH from the remnant circulation of Hurricane Irma, odds remain higher for the rain to stay east of most U.S. soybeans

·        Consultant: There continue to be concerns about excess water impacting Argentina’s winter wheat crop

·        T-storm Weather: Drought worsens in northern wheat growing areas of Australia, namely in/adjacent Queensland

ENERGY

·        Weaker: CLV17, -$.17 @ $48.99; EBX, +$0.31 @ $54.51; EBX-QCLX, +.48; RBV, +.0003; NGV, +.010; HOV, +.0033

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +5.0 (+2.8); Gasoline, -5.7 (-2.5); Distillates, -3.5 (-0.6)

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Wednesday: Chicago added 1/8; New York and Dallas unchanged; Gulf and Tampa off ½; and LA was 1 lower at $1.70 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs posted minor declines on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined 1/8 to 86-86 ¾ 

·        The Oct RBOB/Sep ethanol spread moved out $.0242/gallon Wednesday to +$.15830/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​;                        ​        

·        Choice boxed beef values were 48-cents higher on Wednesdayat $192.93, and are up $1.21 compared to last week

·        Since posting a 2017 calendar year high of $252.52 on June 6, choice boxed beef values have declined $59.59 (-23.6%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.27 on Wednesday to $83.31, and is 92-cents lower vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.03 on Wed. to $70.33.  October futures declined $0.20 and are $6.78 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather