HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— Mostly Lower--CZ: Down $.01 SX: Up $.01; WZ: Down $.0050; KWZ: Down $.0075
· MACRO: Fed comments suggest a rate hike in 2016; IMF lowers U.S. growth rate from 2.2% in July to 1.6%, stocks are mixed. ASIA: Nikkei up 0.50%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, +0.45%. EUROPE: Weaker with the FTSE off .54%; DAX, -.68%; CAC, -.70%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower—DOW, -14; the S&P, -0.75; NASDAQ, -0.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.065 @ 96.06; Gold, +$5.20 @ $1,274.90; Nov Crude, +$.87 @ $49.56/barrel. Deliveries: 0 SBM; 0 SBO
· T-Storm Weather: Two systems produce 1.00"-2.00"+ of rain within the northwest half of the Corn Belt & southeast half of the central / southern Plains through Friday. Some of the wettest weather this week affects a portion of the areas that received at least 8.00" of rain over the last 30 days in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin, though much of it occurs Thursday. Corn, soybean harvest slows within these areas. Areas to the east stay dry & turn unseasonably mild through Thursday
· Corn: CZ Down $.01 @ $3.4725; CH Down $.01 @ $3.5725. The funds bought 5 K on Tuesday
· SB: SX Up $.01 @ $.9.6450; SF Up $.0150 @ $9.7075. Funds: sold 5 SB, 2 SBM, 2 SBO. Dec/Nov crush, $.74, -$.03; LY: $0.99
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0050 @ $3.95; WH Down $.0075 @ $4.1625. The funds were even in Tuesday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Corn yields are improving as harvest progresses. Apparently the first maturing corn was more impacted by high daytime and nighttime temps earlier this summer, and by foliar diseases that may have cut short grain fill
· T-storm Weather: Drying in the Delta & SE third of the Corn Belt favor corn harvest until some showers pass on Friday
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 11% of U.S. corn is harvested Oct. 2-9; would boost the 2016 total to 35%
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports forecast to run in 45-55 mbu per week range; sorghum estimated at 2-3
· Ethanol margins: $0.31 per gallon—down from $0.35 last week and $0.44 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Early soybean yields outstanding; even double crop beans in southern locations are doing extremely well
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 20% of U.S. soybeans are harvested Oct. 2-9; would boost 2016 total to 46%
· T-storm Weather: Beyond Fri., a dry & seasonable to mild pattern early next week turns dry & unseasonably mild as next week progresses in most areas; likely opens a large-scale soybean harvest window for at least 7 consecutive days
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 25-30 mbu over the next 4 weeks vs. 12.9 last year
· T-storm Weather: Over the next 7-10 days, drying aids wettest Australia wheat but rain boosts driest Argentina wheat
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLX16, +$.87 @ $49.56; EBZ, +$0.96; EBZ-CLX, $2.27, +$.09; RBX, +.0144; NGX, -.008; HOX, +$.0274
· EIA estimates: crude, +2.0 (API: -7.6); Gasoline, +0.5 (+2.9); Distillates, -1.7 (-1.3)
· A steady to firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago, New York and Gulf gained ¾; Tampa steady; Dallas added 1 ¼; and LA was unchanged at $1.70 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down ¼ at 89 ¾-90 ¾; 2015’s off ¼ at 89 ¾-90 ¾; and 2016’s eased ¼ to 89 ½-90 ½
· The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse increased $.0029 yesterday to -0.10240/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values fell 28-cents on Tuesday to $186.34, and are down $1.88 vs. last week
· Over the past four trading days, choice boxed beef has declined $4.41 (2.3%) & is the at the lowest level since Sep. 20
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 93-cents lower Tuesday at $71.54, and is down $5.36 vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.48 on Tue. to $55.48. October futures down $0.30 and are $6.855 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather