HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly lower: CU: Up $.0050; SU: Down $.0025; WU: Down $.0325; KWU: Down $.0150
· MACRO: Markets taking a pause after record closes; awaits core CPI, housing starts and industrial output. ASIA: Lower with the Nikkei off 1.62%; Shanghai closed down .47% and the Hang Seng eased .09%. EUROPE: Lower at mid-day with the DAX off .66%; France’s AC is .47% in the red and the FTSE, down .30%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets are all negative with the DOW 30 lower; the S&P is down 2.75 and the NAS, off 5 ½. EXTERNALS: The $ Index is down hard, -.824 @ 94.77; Sep Gold is $11 higher at $1,352.30 and Sep WTI, up $.20 at $45.94.
· T-storm Weather: Two quasi-tropical circulations produce heavy rainfall within the Delta and southeast third of the Corn Belt into today, wiping out lingering dryness across Indiana and Ohio. Most other areas away from the southeast Corn Belt stay dry through midweek. Better-organized rain follows when a strong cool front passes Fri.-Sat. and triggers rain across a large area; scattered 0.40”-0.80” amounts, highest totals in central Plains and western Corn Belt. Temps remain near-normal through Wed.
· Corn: CU Up $.0050 @ $3.27; CZ Up $.0050 @ $3.3750. The funds opened the week buying 6 K
· SB: SU Down $.0025 @ $10.2350; SX Up $.0125 @ $10.1025. Funds: bot 9K SB; 7K SBM, 7K SBO. Sep crush, +$.04, $.89; LY: $1.10
· Wheat: WU Down $.0325 @ $4.1875; WZ Down $.0225 @ $4.36. The funds sold 2 K Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· September 2016 corn futures closed at $3.26 ½ on Mon.—one year ago, September 2015 futures settled at $3.63 ¼
· Corn: Good/Excellent of 74% unch. v. last week (69% in ‘15). Sorghum: Good/Excellent unch at 66% (68% in ’15)
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.740 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.398 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 35 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 52 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Temps turn much warmer across U.S. corn from west to east Wed.-Fri. as maximums return to 90s, but warmth only lasts a day or two and occurs in advance of a strong system that drags sharply cooler air southward
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean blooming at 95% vs. 92% last year and 5-year avg. of 93%. Setting pods is 80% vs. 76% last year and the avg. of 75%. Good/Excellent crop ratings of 72% are steady vs. last week but above 63% in 2015
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout at 250 mbu, while 16/17 carry-out is est. at 281 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Near-normal rainfall is forecast for U.S. soybeans from Aug. 22-28
· ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. HRS wheat crop est. is 522 mbu—down 1 mbu v. last week
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout pegged at 502 mbu compared to 446 last year
ENERGY
· Higher: CLU16, +$.20, $45.94; EBV,+0.20; EBV-CLU, $2.61, $.00; RBU, +.0095; NGU, +.001; HOU, +$.0046
· Cash ethanol markets were higher on Monday: Chicago up 2 1/8; New York added 2 ¾; Gulf increased 2 ¼; Dallas gained 2; Tampa firmed 1 ½; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.55 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 3 5/8 at 81 ¾-82 ½; 2015’s gained 3 5/8 at 81 ¾-82 ½; & 2016’s added 5/8 to 81 ½-82 ¼
· The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol inverse eased $.0078 to -$.03030/gal yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ;Choice boxed beef values were 48-cents higher on Monday at $201.67, and are up $2.50 vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.57 v. last week to $118.35/cwt and $32.27 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.42 on Monday to $75.40, but is still $1.04 lower vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $30.86/cwt vs. last week’s $28.99, last month’s $33.98 & last year’s $34.24
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather