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MARKET TREND Mostly Lower CU down 6, SQ down 22, WU down 6

July 6, 2016 07:30 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mostly Lower: CU: -$.0575; SQ: -$11.75; WU: -$.055; KWI: -$.0525

·        MACRO:  Global markets are extending their losses as fall-out from Brexit continues and the rest of the world is in a slow growth mode.  ASIA: Nikkei, -1.85%; Shanghai, +.36%; Hang Seng, -1.23% . EUROPE: Decidedly weaker with the CAC off 2.34%; the DAX is 2.24% lower and the FTSE, down 1.45.  WALL STREET: Pre-market indicators are again in the red—DOW futures, -95; S&P, -11.25; NAS, -29. OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index is down .144 @ 96.115; July Gold  is $16.9 higher @ $1,73.30 and August crude is $0.58 lower @ $46.01.  Deliveries:  Corn, 363; SB, 153; SBO, 329; HRW, 136; SRW, 38

·        T-storm Weather: In the near-term, some strong thunderstorm clusters affect the Corn Belt through today (most likely in parts of northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin), followed by best chances in northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains Thursday-Friday.  Temperatures revert to seasonable levels in the Corn Belt this weekend before heat expands and triggers additional thunderstorms Sunday-Tuesday – most likely in northern areas

·        Corn: CU Down $.0550 @ $3.4525 CZ Down $.06 @ $3.5159.  Funds:  Sold 25 K to begin the week

·        SB:  SQ Dn $.1175 @ $10.9825; SX Dn $.1525 @ $10.6175. Funds: sold 30 SB, 20 SM; 6 K SBO.  Aug crush, +$.081, $.76; LY: $1.00

·        Wheat:  WU Down $.0525 $4.2825; WZ Down $.05 @ $4.4850.  The funds sold 2 K on Tuesday   

CORN/SORGHUM                              ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;    

·        USDA pegs U.S. corn silking at 15% vs. 10% in 2015 and the avg. of 13%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings of 75% steady with last week but above 69% last year.  Sorghum conditions: Good/Excellent at 69% vs. 70% last week & 67% in 2015

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.800 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.307 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 55 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 31 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Hot upper-level high pressure bounces around the U.S this week and next week, leaving southwest third of corn and soybeans in a near-continual heat wave through mid-month.  Thunderstorms occasionally form

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA pegs U.S. soybean blooming as of July 3 at 22% vs. 17% last year and 5-year avg. of 16%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 70% compared to 72% last week and 63% in 2015

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 305 mbu, while the 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 203 mbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 428 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 512 mbu

·        ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. spring wheat crop est. is 500 mbu—up 29 mil from last week due to higher USDA acreage.  Winter wheat: HRW, 937; SRW, 358; and White, 214.  Winter wheat harvest: 58% vs 55% for the 5-year avg.

ENERGY

·        Lower: CLQ16, -$0.58, $46.01; EBU, -$0.70; EBU-CLU, $0.56, -$.11; RBQ, -$.0368;  NGQ, -0.043; HOQ, -$.0109

·        A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday compared toFriday: Chicago off 3; New York eased 1 ½; Gulf down 2; Tampa and Dallas declined 2 ½; and LA was 4 lower at $1.74 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs steady: 2014’s at 93 ¼-93 ¾; 2015’s at 93 ¼-93 ¾; and 2016’s at 93-93 ½

·        The Aug RBOB/July ethanol inverse expanded $.0368 yesterday to -$.15230/gal                           &​nbsp;     

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;             

· &nb​sp;      Choice boxed beef values gained 10-cents on Tuesday to $208.83, but are still down $1.77 compared to last week

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $5.76 v. last week to $122.50/cwt but $28.85 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 17-cents on Tuesday to $88.5 but is up 90-cents vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.62 lower on Tuesday at $83.83.  July futures down $0.625 & are $1.78 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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