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MARKET TREND Mostly lower CK, down 2, SK, up 5,WK, down 1

April 10, 2017 08:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mostly lower: CK, down $.0025; SK, up $.0425; WK, down $.0125; KWK, down $.0350

·        MACRO—Threat of Syrian escalation said to be easing; markets are mixed.  ASIA—Mostly lower:   Nikkei, +0.71%; Shanghai, -0.50%; Hang Seng, -0.02%.  EUROPE—Lower:  DAX, -0.30%; FTSE, -0.08%; CAC, -0.61%.   Wall STREET-Futures are slightly positive:  DOW, +2; S&P, +0.25; NAS, +1.75.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.043 @ 100.990 ; April Gold, -$3.00 @ $1,251; May Crude, +$0.33 @ $52.57 

·        T-storm Weather: A swath of 0.67”-1.33” of rain affects corn and soybean areas of South Dakota and Minnesota today, but focuses just south of the spring wheat belt.  A few thunderstorms dot Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt today-Tue., but only scattered coverage of 0.50” totals occur.  A larger system triggers thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains, western half of the Corn Belt and Delta Wed.-Fri,. resulting in 0.40”-0.80” (except in/adjacent Colorado)

·        Corn: CK down $.0025 @ $3.5925; CN down $.0075 @ $3.6650.  The Funds sold 5 K on Friday   

·        SB: up $.0425 @ $9.4625; SN Up $.04 @ $9.5725.  Funds: sold 3 SB, 3 SBM, bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.82, -4; LY; $.58

·        Wheat: WK down $.0150 @ $4.2250; WN down $.0150 @ $4.3475.  The funds bought 1 K to close out the week

 CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 41.5 mbu needed; 58.1 last week.  Milo—3.5 needed; 5.4 last week

·        T-storm Weather: Dry and seasonably-hot upper-level high pressure suppresses rain in key safrinha (double crop) corn areas of Center-West & Southeast Brazil over the next week as a typical flash of the impending dry season occurs

·        USDA WASDE on April 11: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--16/17, 2.345 bbu (range 2.270-2.484) and 2.320 in March

·        WASDE estimates: Avg. trade est. 16/17 Brazil corn crop, 92.5 MMT (91.5 Mar); Argentina corn, 37.8 MMT (37.5 Feb)

·        May 2017 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.59 ½; one year ago, May 2016 corn settled at $3.62 ¼

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 13.7 mbu needed; 22.8 last week

·        T-storm Weather: Widespread rain expected affects Argentina since Friday.  Another 0.50”-1.50” of rain affects the southeast third of Argentina’s soybean belt through today.  A sharply drier pattern immediately follows

·        WASDE estimate: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--16/17, 0.447 bbu (range 0.425-0.471) and 0.435 in March

·        WASDE: Avg. trade est. 16/17 Brazil soybeans, 110.0 MMT (108.0 in Mar); Argentina soybeans, 56.0 MMT (55.5 Mar)

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Wheat, 24.8 needed; 20.6 last week

·        WASDE estimate: Avg. trade est U.S. all wheat carryout--16/17, 1.152 bbu (range 1.125-1.200) and 1.129 in March

ENERGY

·        Firmer: CLK17, +0.33 @ $52.57; EBM, +$0.42 @ $55.66; EBM-QCLM, +.09; RBK,+$.0043; NGK, -$0.018; HOK, +$.0097

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago up 2 3/8; New York added 1 ½; Gulf firmed 2; Dallas steady; Tampa down 1 ½; and LA was 2 lower at $1.77 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker on Friday: 2016’s declined 1 to 54-55; and 2017’s eased 1 to 54-55

·        The May RBOB/May ethanol eased $.0024 on Friday, to+$.11720/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &nb​sp;                

·&nb​sp;       Choice boxed beef values declined 68-cents on Friday to $207.22, and are $6.90 lower compared to last week 

·        Declines have been seen in choice boxed beef for 13 consecutive days; total losses over that period are $17.71 (7.9%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass was $1.44 higher on Friday at $74.83, but is down 4-cents vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.42 on Fri. to $65.73.  April futures were $0.60 lower and are $2.405 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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