HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly lower: CH, down $.01; SF, down $.0525; WH, up $.0025; KWH, unch
· MACRO: Christmas rally ebbs, some concerns that pre-mature Fed rate tightening that may drag the economy down. Data day—jobless claims, durable goods, 3rd qtr GDP revisions. ASIA-mostly weaker: Nikkei, -0.09%; Hang Seng, -0.80%; Shanghai, +0.09%. EUROPE—a little weaker: FTSE, -0.12%; DAX, -0.13%; CAC, -0.20%. Wall STREET: Futures are lower: the DOW, -11; S&P, -1.75; NASDAQ, -4.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.174 @102.855; Gold, +$0.10 @ $1,131.20; Feb Crude, -$0.29 @ $52.20
· T-storm Weather: Normal rain for Argentina corn & soybeans over the next 10 days is ~1.50", & above to much-above normal totals of 1.50"-3.50" are forthcoming from thunderstorms today, but more so within Sat.-Mon. A period of drying follows next week with the next rain chance more than 5 days after heavy rain ends. In Brazil, upper-level high pressure leaves the northeast ~35% & ~25% of first-crop corn and soybean production fairly dry over the next week. At least 5 days of heat also begin Fri.-Sat.
· Corn: CH down $.01 @ $3.4625; CK down $.01 @ $3.53. The funds sold another 5 K at mid-week
· SB: SF dn $.0525 @ $10.0150; SH, dn $.05 @ $10.12. Funds—Bot 1 SB, 0 SBM, 0 SBO. Board Crush: $.71, 0; LY, $.59
· Wheat: WH up $.0025 @ 3.9975; WK unch @ $4.1225. Fund selling totaled 2 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 31-43 for 16/17 corn
· T-storm Weather: Rain encroaches in one week on warm and dry northeast production areas of Brazil, but it appears unlikely for precipitation to reach areas in/near Bahia, potentially causing ~10% of corn to stay fairly dry into January.
· Consultant: Bias is Brazilian farmers will increase their safrinha (double crop) corn acreage due to potentially early soybean harvest. However, relatively low corn prices my encourage a cut back on inputs in order to hold down costs
· Ethanol grind: 1,036,000 barrels/day for week end Dec. 16—down 0.4% vs. last week but 6.5% higher vs. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 40-51 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 125-275 K MT; soyoil, 5-30
· Consultant: Weekend rain in Argentina will help soybeans, but more will be needed to recharge soil moisture
· T-storm Weather: The warm, dry setup projected for northeast Brazil over the next week is forecast to break down over Dec. 27-30, returning thunderstorms to soybeans in at least southern areas of Goias and Minas Gerais
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 16/17 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain and thunderstorms impact SRW wheat in the U.S. Corn Belt and Delta Sun.-Mon.
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG17, -$0.29 @ $52.20; EBG, -$0.34; EBG-CLG, $1.93, -$0.04; RBG, -$.0266;NGG, +$.008; HOG, -$.0126
· Cash ethanol markets were notably weaker on Wednesday: Chicago plummeted 14 ½; New York down 3; Gulf fell 2 ½; Dallas and Tampa declined 5; Tampa up 1; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $1.82 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were lower: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s all declined 1 ¾ to 90-96 ½
· The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread widened nearly 3 cents to +$0.05650/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values declined 38-cents on Wed. to $197.25, and are still $6.37 higher compared to a week ago
· Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec 1 on feed, 98.5%; Nov placements, 112.5%; Marketed in Nov 116.4%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass gained 60-cents Wed. to $79.32, is up $4.86 vs. last week & is the highest since Sep. 20
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.04 higher on Wed. at $58.18. February futures increased $0.90 & are $6.72 above the index
· Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Friday: Avg. trade est, all hogs and pigs, 101.8%; breeding, 100.3%, market, 102.0%
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather