HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— Mostly higher--CZ: Up $.0050; SX: Down $.0325; WZ: Up $.03; KWZ: Up $.03
· MACRO: Today begins the earnings season along with jobless claims and remarks by the Philly Fed head; China’s exports fall 10% Sep to Sep, global demand concerns. ASIA: Nikkei, -0.39%%; Shanghai, +.09%; Hang Seng, -1.61%. EUROPE: Weaker--FTSE, -0.68%; DAX, -1.21%; CAC, -1.28%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets are really in the red--DOW, -95 S&P, -11.75; NASDAQ, -28.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.112 @ 97.85; Gold, +$6.80 $1,260.60; Nov Crude, -$.05 @ $50.14. Deliveries: 143 SBM; 137 SBO
· T-Storm Weather: A parade of systems sweep through the central U.S. over the next two weeks and develop showers and thunderstorms within the Corn Belt, Delta & southern Plains every few days with highest totals generally just east of the wettest areas; 0.75" to 1.50" most common in this area. Best rain chances recur today-Fri. in the southern Plains, then continue every 1-3 days from Sat.-Sun. forward. Despite coolness today, temps average much warmer than normal into at least late next week
· Corn: CZ Up $.0050 @ $3.3750; CH Up $.0075 @ $3.4775. The funds sold 12 K on Report Day
· SB: SX Down $.0325 @ $9.4225; SF Down $.0375 @ $9.4975. Funds: Sold 6 K SB, 4 SBM, 0 SBO. Z/X crush, $.74, +$.01; LY: $1.02
· Wheat: WZ Up $.03 @ $3.9975; WH Up $.0325 @ $4.1975. The funds sold 5 K at mid-week
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Surprising USDA upped U.S. corn exports 50 mbu in Supply/Demand report given a 630 mbu increase in foreign corn exports. Projected competition could have dire implications for U.S. program the last half of crop year
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 11% of U.S. corn is harvested Oct. 9-16; would boost the 2016 total to 46%
· Ethanol margins: $0.33 per gallon—up from $0.31 last week but down vs. $0.40 last year. EIA report at 10:00 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: A stormy period continues through 10 days in Argentina, southern Brazil & Paraguay; 1.50”-3.00” of rain is forecast in most of Argentina and higher amounts of 3.00”-6.00” into South Brazil. Corn planting to slow/stop
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: USDA report viewed as a little negative for soybeans. Global carry-in stocks boosted 2.55 MMT; most of that in South America (S Am). Ending stocks jumped 5.2 MMT with S Am accounting for virtually all of the increase
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 17% of U.S. soybeans are harvested Oct. 9-16; would boost 2016 total to 61%
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports increased 25 mbu following an additional reduction in EU crop size, although larger production and export forecasts were made for Australia and Canada
· T-storm Weather: Current storms in S Am to reduce Brazil wheat quality, but aid reproductive wheat in Argentina
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLX16, -$.05 @ $50.14; EBZ, +$.11; EBZ-CLX, $1.78, +$.15; RBX, -.0008; NGX, -$.007; HOX, +$.0061
· EIA estimates: crude, +0.9 (API: +2.7); Gasoline, -1.4 (+0.7); Distillates, -1.3 (-1.4)
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Wednesday: Chicago down 2; New York off 3; Gulf fell 2 5/8; Tampa declined a penny; Dallas eased ½; but LA was 1 higher at $1.74 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs steady: 2014’s unchanged at 91 ½-92 ¼; 2015’s unchanged at 91 ½-92 ¼; and 2016’s unch at 91 ¼-92
· The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse was little changed (+.007) at -0.07310/gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.68 lower on Wednesday at $181.50, and are down $2.60 vs. last week
· Scattered cash cattle sales occurred on Wednesday in Kansas at $98, which is $4 lower compared to a week ago
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 88-cents on Wed. to $72.14, and is 58-cents higher vs. the prior week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $20.38/cwt vs. last week’s $20.16, last month’s $29.20 & last year’s $37.45
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather