HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: Mostly higher--CZ: Up $.005 SF: Up $.0375; WZ: Up $.005; KWZ: Down $.005
· MACRO: World stocks are mixed but generally trending lower as the market monitors volatile trends in oil prices. Support in Asia was linked in part to ideas that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will boost global banks. ASIA: Higher: Nikkei, +1.10%; Hang Seng, +0.02%. EUROPE: Lower: FTSE, -0.50%; DAX, -0.54%. WALL STREET: Down: DOW, -48; S&P, -7; NASDAQ, +17. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.285 @ 100.535; Gold, -$0.26 @ $1,223.75; Dec Crude, -$0.57 @ $45.24. Deliveries: 4 SB
· T-storm Weather: Despite a few thunderstorms through Thursday, mainly dry weather affects Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 7-10 days; maximums stay in the 70s most days with minimums most-often in the 50s. Conversely, cool fronts trigger several heavy thunderstorm clusters in northern areas of Brazil (including ~40% and ~50% of first-crop corn and soybean production) through 10 days, resulting in 3.00" to 6.00" of rain, or approximately twice normal
· Corn: CZ up $.005 @ $3.42; CH up $.0075 @ $3.50. The funds bought 7 K on Tuesday
· SB: SF up $.0375 @ $9.9325; SH up $.0375 @ $10.0175. Funds: Bought 3 SB; 1 SBM; and 3 SBO.
· Wheat: WZ up $.005 @ $3.995; WH down $.0025 @ $4.185. The funds bought 4 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Brazilian currency today is weaker than last week. When Brazilian currency weakens, it results in rising domestic commodity prices in Brazil—e.g. corn. This could support an increase in safrinha (double crop) corn acreage
· T-storm Weather: Little to no rain continues for corn in northern Argentina and southern Brazil from Nov. 17-24. It is not clear when the next round of rain will develop, but it is unlikely until next weekend (Nov. 25-26) or later
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports forecast at 30-40 mbu per week; sorghum estimated at 1.5-2.0 mbu
· Ethanol margins: $0.35 per gallon—up from $0.32 last week and unchanged from 2015. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Brazil soybeans continue to get off to a better than average start with earlier planted fields blooming. Thus far, it’s been a very good start in Mato Grosso (#1 producing state), but some dryness concern in southern Brazil
· T-storm Weather: A wet to very wet period continues over the next 10 days for soybeans in northern Brazil. Highest coverage and amounts occur Thu. and early next week; rainfall totals may be more than double the normal amounts
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu over the next 4 weeks vs. 11.9 last year
· T-storm Weather: Brunt of significant precipitation later this week focuses to the north of most U.S. HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Lower: CLZ16, -$0.57 @ $45.24; EBF, -$0.64; EBF-CLF, $0.50, -$0.06; RBZ, +$.0018; NGZ, -$.017; HOZ, -$.0140
· EIA estimates (API): Crude oil, +1.1 (+3.7); Gasoline, -0.5 (-0.2); Distillates, -1.8 (+3.0)
· Cash ethanol markets maintained a mixed trend on Tuesday: Chicago up 5/8; New York and Tampa down ½; Gulf firmed 1 ¾; Dallas eased 1; and LA was ½ higher at $1.71 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were steady: 2015’s unch at 80-81; 2016’s unch at 80-81; and 2017’s unch at 79 ¾-80 ¾
· The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse is -0.19420/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef declined 81-cents on Tuesday to $183.11, and is $2.23 lower vs. a week ago
· Cash cattle trading remained sluggish on Tuesday, with some asking prices of $107 to $108 noted in the South
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 63-cents on Tuesday to $73.60, and is down 11-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.08 lower Tue. at $48.38. December futures down $0.775 & are $2.255 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com