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MARKET TREND Mostly higher CU up 3, SU steady WU up 3

August 4, 2017 07:18 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CU: up $.0275; SU: steady; WU: up $.0275; KWU: up $.0325 

·       MACRO:  Investors are focusing on today’s July U.S. jobs report—consensus has 180 K in new jobs added with unemployment at 4.3%.  ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei,-0.38%; Shanghai, -0.35%; Hang Seng, +0.12%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.15%; FTSE, +0.02%; CAC, +0.15%.   WALL STREET—Futures point to a positive start—DOW, +36; S&P, +1.50; NAS, +6.75.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index-.087 @ 92.620; Sep Gold+$1.20 @ $1,271 Oct crude: -$.35 @ $48.84/bl.  Dely: SBM, 128; SBO, 704; SB, 6

·       T-storm Weather: Unseasonable coolness lasts for at least 10 days, especially over today-Mon. as maximums fail to reach the 80s across a large area.  Above-normal rainfall occurs across the southeast third of corn and soybeans to contrast with near- or below-normal rainfall across the northwest third, leaving some northwestern areas drier than ideal, while adequate to ample rains occur to the south and east

·       CU, up $.0275 @ $3.6625; CZ, up $.0250 @ $3.8025.  Fund selling amounted to 6 K on Thursday          

·       SU, steady @ $9.54; SX, down $.0025 @ $9.6025.  Funds: sold 10 K SB, 6 SBM, 8 SBO. Board Crush: $.93, +2;LY, $.85

·       WU, up $.0275 @ $4.6025; WZ, up $.0275 @ $4.8775.  The funds sold 4 K yesterday                

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: Beyond rain today, scattered thunderstorms follow over Sat.-Mon. with highest totals south and west, followed by additional rainfall across the southeast third to half of corn over Tue.-Fri.

·       ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop corn as of July 27 stood at 373 mbu, which is down 43% from 655 mbu at this time a year ago

·       December 2017 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.77 ¾; one year ago, December 2016 corn futures settled at $3.31

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production est. steady at 39.0 MMT this week; Neutral bias going forward. Harvest at 67% 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: End result of projected rain next 10 days: Above-normal in southeast third of U.S. soybeans (1.50”-3.00”); near- or above-normal in central third (0.75”-1.50”); & near- or below-normal in northwest third (0.50”-1.00”)

·       ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop soybeans as of July 27 stood at 454 mbu, which is down 28% from 632 mbu this time a year ago

·       CBT September 2017 wheat futures Thu. closed at $4.57 ¾; one year ago, September 2016 futures settled at $4.03 ¼

·       ATI Research: Unshipped export sales of U.S. all wheat as of July 27 stood at 193 mbu, which is 15% lower from 226 mbu this time a year ago.  Largest declines by class are being seen for HRW (-44%) and HRS (-24%); SRW is up 18%

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLV17-$0.35 @ $48.84; EBV-$0.39 @ $51.62; EBV-QCLV-.04; RBU+.0007; NGU-.026; HOU, -.0087

·       Cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly higher on Thursday: Chicago unchanged; New York, Gulf, Tampa and Dallas increased ½; and LA was also ½ higher at $1.74 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs climbed modestly on Thursday: 2016’s and 2017’s gained ¼ to 85 ½-87 ½ 

·       The Sep RBOB/Aug ethanol spread narrowed further, losing $.0069 on Thursday to +$.07890/gallon, premium ETOH 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &​nbsp;       

·       Choice boxed beef values increased 10-cents on Thursday to $205.16, but are still $1.27 lower vs. last week

·       Dressed steer weight for week end July 22: 868 lbs, up 1 lbs v. last week, 861.25 for 4-week avg. and 880 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 25-cents on Thu. to $96.30, and is $2.93 lower vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.24 on Thu. at $87.11.  August futures firmed $0.025 but are still $5.135 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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