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MARKET TREND Mostly higher CU down 1, SU up 1, WU up 2

August 31, 2017 07:40 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CU: unch; SU: up $.0325; WU: up $.02; KWU: up $.0275

·       MACRO: Global markets are generally  following Commerce’s increase of its estimate of 2nd quarter growth from 2.6% to 3.0%  ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei,+0.72%; Shanghai, -0.08%; Hang Seng, -0.44%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.66%; FTSE, +0.63%; CAC, +0.79%.   WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW, +56; S&P, +5.75; NAS,+11.25.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.287 @ 92.885; Sep Gold:-$2.50 @ $1,312 Oct crude: +$.30 @ $46.26/bl.  Deliveries: C, 844; HRW, 275; RR, 67O; SRW, 1: 

·       T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather affects the Plains & northwest half to three-fourths of the Corn Belt over the next 10-14 days, marking a very dry start to September.  Heavy rain occurs to the immediate south, primarily through today in the Delta from the remnant circulation of Harvey, potentially followed by rain from another tropical system in the central & southern Delta in approx. one week, though an intrusion of cool air in the Corn Belt is probable to weaken the system or keep its core in the Gulf

·       CU unch @ $3.2950; CZ, down $.0050 @ $3.44.  The funds sold 5 K Wednesday                 

·       SU, up $.0325 @ $9.2625; SX, unch @ $9.3325.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 1 SBM, 0 SBO.  Board crush: $.98, +4 LY, $.94

·       WU, up $.02 @ $4.0550; WZ, up $.0125 @ $4.31.  The funds were even yesterday                      

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       September 2017 corn futures on Wed. closed at $3.29 ½--lowest settlement price for nearby corn since Sep. 29, 2016

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 0-8 mbu for 16/17 corn and 16-28 mbu for 17/18

·       T-storm Weather: U.S. temperatures will be seasonable to cool through the weekend, followed by sharp cooling Mon.-Tue.  The potential exists for frost to occur at some point next week, but a killing event remains unlikely

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn dent on average increases approximately 17% over Aug. 27-Sep. 3 to approximately 68%

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,042,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 25—dn 10 thou v. prior week but up 1.9% v. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects (22) - 7 mbu for 16/17 soybeans and 37-55 for 17/18; soymeal, 30-160 K MT for 16/17 and 75-150 for 17/18; soyoil, 8-25 K MT for 16/17 and 0-10 for 17/18 

·       T-storm Weather: Heavy rainfall of 3.00”-6.00” (and locally more) affect most soybeans in the Delta through Thu.-Fri. as rain from the remnant circulation of Hurricane Harvey passes, likely inducing areas of flooding

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Drought has worsened across the northern ~15% of Australia wheat production, primarily in/near Queensland and northern New south Wales

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLV17+$0.30 @ $46.26; EBV+$0.17 @ $51.03; EBV-QCLV-.13; RBV+.0379; NGV, -.003; HOV, +.0186

·       Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Wednesday: Chicago down 2 1/8; New York and Gulf eased 2 ½; Dallas declined 2; Tampa eased 1 ½; and LA was 2 lower at $1.70 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were slightly higher on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 3/8 to 86-88 

·       The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread was wider still, increasing $.12640 on Wednesday to +$.39570/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                        ​

·       Choice boxed beef values were 5-cents lower on Wednesday at $191.72 and are down 61-cents vs. last week

·       Light to moderate cash cattle trading occurred in the North on Wed. at $165-$166, which is $3-$4 lower v. last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell 30-cents on Wed. to $84.23 and is $3.24 lower compared to a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.09 on Wed. to $74.59.  October futures firmed $1.125 but are $13.24 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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