HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CN, down $.0050; SN, up $.0775; WN, up $.0350; KWN, up $.0675
· MACRO—Fed meets today; April car sales are out. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.70%; Shanghai, -0.35%; Hang Seng, +0.33%. EUROPE—Higher: DAX, +0.17%; FTSE, +0.44%; CAC, +0.37%. Wall Street-Futures are mostly lower: DOW, -23; S&P, -2.50; NAS, +3.50. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.005 @ 98.780; June Gold, +$0.60 @ $1,256; June Crude, +$0.39 @ $49.23. Deliveries: SBM, 0; SBO, 629; Corn, 730; HRW, 742; SB, 861; SRW, 349
· T-storm Weather: Another system passes Tue.-Fri., producing a few showers across the northwest half of the central U.S. Tue.-Wed., and significant rainfall from southern Kansas through the southeast third to half of the Corn Belt and Delta; 1.00" to 2.00" most common in wettest corn, soybean, and SRW wheat areas where flooding worsens. Conversely, sharp drying unfolds from northwest to southeast after this system exits, but temperatures remain cool away from the Plains
· Corn: CN down $.0050 @ $3.77; CU down $.0025@ $3.8450. Huge fund buying on Monday—30 K!
· SB: SN up $.0775 @ $9.78; SQ up $.0725@ $9.7875. Funds: Bot 8 SB; 6 SBM, 5 SBO. Board Crush: $.84, -3; LY; $.78
· Wheat: WN up $.0350 @ $4.5950; WU up $.0325 @ $4.72. The funds were big buyers—18 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 30 at 34% vs. 43% last year and the 5-year average of 34%
· T-storm Weather: Increased rain chances are forecast from west to east over May 10-15; highest chances are initially in the central Plains next Wed.-Thu. (May 10-11), then further east with time (especially in wettest southern areas)
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop is unch. this week at 92.0 MMT. The est. is on the low end of the trade range because of some dry pockets for safrinha (double crop) in central Brazil and the recent cold temperatures in southern Brazil
· ATI Research: Not to underestimate last week’s rainfall, but a review of recent history of corn planting progress the first week of May suggests it is probably too early to draw hard and fast conclusions regarding yield and acreage loss
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 30 at 10% vs. 7% last year and the 5-year average of 7%
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. unchanged at 110.0 MMT with a neutral to higher bias. Harvest at 95%
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export forecast reversed course this week, moving up from 13.0 mbu per week to 14.5. This compares to shipments of 8.0 mbu per week last year and the seasonal average of 9.0
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is 20-25 mbu/week v. 15.30 last year & latest 4-week avg. of 23.4
· ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent unch at 54%; winter wheat model pegs ‘17 crop @ 1.282 bbu; -5 mbu v. last week. Note: Given extreme weather seen this past weekend, crop ratings could change significantly in the weeks ahead
ENERGY
· Higher: CLM17, +$0.39 @ $49.23; EBN, +.35 @ $51.87;EBN-QCLN, -.01; RBM,+$.0228; NGM, +$0.018; HOM, +$.0199
· Cash ethanol markets remained mixed on Monday: Chicago added ¼; New York gained ¾; Gulf firmed 1 ¼; Dallas and Tampa increased ½; but LA was 1 lower at $1.77 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were higher on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 2 at 43-45 ½
· The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse strengthened on Monday, up $.0358 to -$.04580/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values was $4.49 higher on Mondayat $226.27, and is up $7.60 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $4.62 v. last week at $136.22/cwt, and is $12.43 higher v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 93-cents on Monday to $74.96, and is $1.02 higher v. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.91/cwt vs. last week’s $39.34, last month’s $43.50 & last year’s $49.01
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather