HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CK, steady; SK, up $.0175; WK, up $.0125; KWK, up $.0325
· MACRO—Poor March U.S. car sales do not bode well for consumer spending, economic growth; how will Trump/President XI meeting go Thurs/Fri? ASIA—Mixed: Nikkei, -0.91%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, +0.62%. EUROPE—Mostly lower: DAX, -0.09%; FTSE, +0.24%; CAC, -0.12%. Wall STREET-Futures are lower: DOW, -47; S&P, -6; NAS, -15.25. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.078 @ 100.330; April Gold, +$7.50 @ $1,258; May Crude, +$0.20 @ $50.44
· T-storm Weather: Two systems produce heavy rain across the central Plains and southeast half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt through Wed.-Thu. A several-day break in rain follows before the next series of systems pass, initially focusing rain on northern areas of the Plains Sun.-Mon., then elsewhere next week as the wet pattern continues into mid-month. The pattern most likely remains similar beyond next week given the upper-level wind flow stays similar to that of last week, this week, and next week
· Corn: CK unch @ $3.6775; CN unch @ $3.7525. Fund buying carried over to Monday with another 7 K purchased
· SB: up $.0175 @ $9.40; SN up $.0175 @ $9.51. Funds: sold 4 SB, 2 SBM, 4 SBO. Board Crush: $.84, +2; LY; $.59
· Wheat: WK up $.0125 @ $4.29; WN up $.0075 @ $4.41. The funds opened the week buying 4 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export forecast model decreased from 60.4 mbu to 56.5 per week, which is 0.8 mil lower than the avg. of the past 4 weeks; is 11 mbu higher than last year; and 20 million above the 5-year seasonal avg.
· USDA updated corn planting in Delta: Arkansas, 30% v. 30% avg; Mississippi, 63% v. 37%; & Louisiana, 90% v. 70%
· Consultant: Brazil and Argentina corn production estimates steady from last week at 88.0 MMT and 37.0, respectively
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout est. at 2.263 bbu; U.S. sorghum; 16/17 carry-out at 38 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rain is forecast over the next 10 days across southern Brazil safrinha (double crop) corn
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export forecast increased from 18.6 mbu last week to 19.2 this week. This compares to 12.4/week last year; the 5-year average of 15.2; and the latest 4-week average of 30.9
· Consultant: Brazil 16/17 soybean production estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 109.0 MMT (vs. 96.5 last year). Argentina estimate is unchanged at 56.0
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carryout est. at 459 mbu and 17/18 pegged at 598 mbu
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is 20-25 mbu/week v. 14.6 last year & latest 4-week avg. of 21.1
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout est. at 220 mbu and 17/18 pegged at 179 mbu
ENERGY
· Higher: CLK17, +0.20 @ $50.44; EBM, -$0.01 @ $53.11; EBM-QCLM, -.21; RBK, +$.0022; NGK, +$0.003; HOK, +$.0044
· The uptrend in cash ethanol markets continued on Monday: Chicago and New York up 3 ¾; Gulf added 2 ¾; Dallas firmed 4; Tampa gained 3 ½; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.82 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were firmer on Monday: 2016’s increased 2 ½ to 55-56 ½; and 2017’s firmed 2 ¼ to 55-56 ½
· The May RBOB/April ethanol narrowed up $.0274 to+$.05870/gallon on Monday, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values were 69-cents lower on Mon. at $213.43, and are down $6.48 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.53 v. last week at $127.381/cwt, but is $6.45 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass firmed 21-cents on Monday to $75.08, but is still $3.32 lower vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.50/cwt vs. last week’s $45.33, last month’s $44.53 & last year’s $50.59
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather