HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CH, down $.0050; SF, up $.0550; WH, up $.0075; KWH, up $.02
· MACRO: Most of Asia follows Wall Street higher. ASIA-Up: Nikkei, +0.47%; Hang Seng, +0.75%; Shanghai, -0.17%. EUROPE-firmer: FTSE, +0.15%; DAX, +0.43%; CAC, +0.52%. Wall STREET: Slightly positive pre-markets, following yesterday’s record close: DOW, +3; S&P, +0.75; NASDAQ, +2.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.203 @ 100.340; Gold, -$4.900 @ $1,169.10; Jan Crude, -$0.45 @ $51.34. Deliveries: SBO, 410; HRW, 51; SRW, 24; Oats, 77
· T-storm Weather: A wave of energy triggers thunderstorms in northern Argentina Wed.-Thu. Although 1.00" to 2.00" of rain occurs in northern corn and soybean areas, much of each crop has not been planted in the north – all early-crop corn (~40% of total production) and the ~50% of soybeans have all been planted further to the south where mainly dry weather occurs through 7 to 10 days. The same setup causes widespread rain to affect much of southern Brazil and Paraguay Fri.-Sat.
· Corn: CH down $.0050 @ $3.5875; CZ, down $.0050 @ $3.49. The funds continued buying on Monday, 8 K
· SB: SF up $.0550 @ $10.49; SH, up $.0550 @ $10.5875. Funds—bot 5 SB; 3 SBM, Sold 2 SBO. Board Crush: $.74, -.01; LY, $.71
· Wheat: WH up $.0075 @ $4.09; WZ, NA. The funds began the week buying 3 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: There continues to be concern about the drier weather for Argentina corn and the fact that the crop is being planted later than normal. For now, the production estimate remains unchanged at 35.0 MMT v. 27.0 last year
· T-storm Weather: Lack of rain over the next 7-10 days leaves early-crop Argentina corn mired in one of its driest early-November to early-December periods since 1980. Next chance for rain is not until sometime within Dec. 13-17
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.539 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Nationwide Brazilian soybean harvest could be 10-15% complete end of January vs. avg. of approx. 4-5%
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 483 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Soil moisture is probable to remain adequate or improve for soybeans in much of Brazil and Paraguay through mid-month as widespread rainfall of 2.00" to 4.00" unfolds
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 194 mbu compared to 157 last year
· T-storm Weather: A system develops a swath of snow in portions of the U.S. central Plains tonight and Wed., but only a small portion of HRW wheat will be affected by 3" to 6" amounts
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLF16, -$0.45 @ $51.34; EBG, -$0.25; EBG-CLF, $3.34, +$0.19; RBF, +$.0004; NGF, +$.040; HOF, -$.0002
· Cash ethanol markets were higher on Monday: Chicago gained 3; New York and Tampa added 1 ¼; Gulf jumped 4 ¾; Dallas firmed ¾; and LA was 1 ¾ higher at $1.83 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmed: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s were all ¾ higher at 106-109
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol inverse dropped $.0814 to -$0.02950/gallon on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $1.67 on Monday to $191.39, and are $3.39 higher compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.98 v. last week to $114.03/cwt, but is $9.36 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass was firmed 94-cents on Monday to $73.53, but is 59-cents lower vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $24.85/cwt vs. last week’s $26.76, last month’s $23.26 & last year’s $28.76
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather