HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— Mixed--CZ: Up $.0050; SX: Up $.0050; WZ: Down $.0100; KWZ: Down $.0125
· MACRO: Global equity markets are mostly firmer, no significant news. ASIA: Playing catch-up from Friday with the Nikkei up 0.90%; Shanghai, closed all week; Hang Seng, +1.23%. EUROPE: Firmer—DAX, closed; FTSE, +1.24%; CAC, +0.30%. WALL STREET: Futures are higher—DOW, +12; the S&P, +.25; NASDAQ, +1.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.045 @ 95.43; Gold, +$3.40 @ $1,320.50; Nov Crude, +$.47 @ $48.71/barrel.
· T-Storm Weather: Dry weather prevails in U.S. corn and soybean areas through today. A system emerges Tue. in the central U.S., resulting in 0.50”-1.50” of rain across the western half of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Plains Tue.-Wed. (including some of the wettest areas of Iowa and Minnesota), but leaving areas to the east much drier. Another round of rain follows across the northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of central/southern Plains Thu.-Fri.; 0.25”-0.75” amounts
· Corn: CZ Up $.0050 @ $3.3725; CH Up $.0050 @ $3.47. The funds bought 10 K on Friday
· SB: SX Up $.0050 @ $9.5450; SF Up $.0050 @ $9.5975. Funds: bought 3 SB & 1 SBM, even SBO. Oct crush, $.67, -$.02; LY: $0.87
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0100 @ $4.01; WH Down$.0175 @ $4.23. The funds bought 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn harvest progress for the week ended Oct. 2 is estimated at 20-25% vs. 15% last week, 24% last year and the 5-year average of 27%
· ATI Research: Some talk that the relatively high implied summer feed/residual use of corn revealed in Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks report may be explained by the pipeline requirements of a record summer export program
· T-storm Weather: After this week’s secondary rain system passes on Thu.-Fri., another large-scale organized rainfall event is not expected in most areas
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 41.0 mbu needed; 52.6 last week. Milo—4.8 needed; 4.8 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean harvest progress for week end Oct. 2 est. at 15-20% v. 10% last week, 36% last year & 5-year avg. of 27%
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Soybeans, 38.8 mbu needed; 14.1 last week
· ATI Research: Grain Stocks report shows soybean residual use during June-August declined from -147 mbu in 2015 to -97 mbu this year, which may in part be explained by summer exports that were nearly 3 times the size of last year
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Wheat, 16.7 needed; 32.1 last week
· ATI Research: Wheat feed/residual use in June-August from Grain Stocks report well below expectations at 282 mbu
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLX16, +$.47 @ $48.71; EBZ, +$0.5-; EBZ-CLX, $1.98, +$.03; RBX, +.0116; NGX, -.019; HOX, +$.0077
· A mixed tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf down ½; New York up ¾; Tampa gained 1; Dallas steady; and LA was ½ higher $1.70 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s gained ¼ to 88 ¾-89 ¼; 2015’s increased ¼ to 88 ¾-89 ¼; and 2016’s added ¼ to 88 ½-89
· The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse declined further on Friday, off $.0136 to -$0.0596/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were $2.42 lower on Friday at $187.35, but are still up 54-cents vs. last week
· October live cattle futures on Fri. closed at $98.90; the last time nearby futures settled below $100 was Nov. 17, 2010
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 32-cents on Fri. to $73.47, but is still down $3.00 vs. a week ago
· ATI Research: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs shows expanding production (all hogs/pigs at 102.4%) despite falling hog prices
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather