HIGHLIGHT
· MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ: up $.005; SF: up $.0425; WZ: down $.015; KWZ: down $.01.
· MACRO. A weaker trend is evident in world stocks with a drop in oil prices fueling selling interest ASIA—Lower: Nikkei, -1.57%; Shanghai, -0.79%; Hang Seng, -1.03%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -1.19%; FTSE, -0.56%; CAC, -0.55%. WALL STREET—Futures are sharply lower—DOW, -123 S&P, -13.25; NAS, -30.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.278 @ 93.445; Gold: +$3.50 @ $1,285; Dec crude: -$0.56 @ $55.14/bl.
· T-storm Weather: In the U.S., numerous systems pass over the next 10 to 14 days, but a lack of humidity keeps cattle and HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains dry, instead focusing rain and some snow on the Corn Belt / Delta and points east. Temperatures fluctuate with a wide range through the period, ultimately averaging near-normal in key cattle and HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains, but colder than normal with eastward extent
· CZ, up $.005 @ $3.38; CH, unchanged @ $3.505. Funds sold 5 K on Tuesday
· SF, up $.0425 @ $9.72; SH, up $.045 @ $9.8325. Funds: Sold 5 K SB, 1 SBM and 3 SBO. Deliveries were 157 today
· WZ, down $.015 @ $4.265; WH, down $.015 @ $4.4375. The funds sold 3 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is unchanged in the low to mid-20 mbu per week range
· Consultant: Nationwide corn planting in Argentina advanced 1% last week to 35%. This is a little slow for November when planting usually advances 2-3% per week. The Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged at 42.0 MMT
· T-storm Weather: A swath of dryness exists in some key corn areas of central Argentina, and most areas will be drier than normal over the next 10 days (despite a few storms through Thu., and potentially a few more next Thu.-Fri.)
· Ethanol margins: $0.27 per gallon—steady with last week but well below $0.50 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is unchanged at 85-95 mbu per week
· Consultant: In Argentina, the near-term weather forecast is only light showers in key soybean provinces of Cordoba, parts of Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. Another week to two of dry weather here would start to be a concern
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain of 2.00”-4.00” affects most soybean areas of Brazil over the next two weeks
· ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports remains at 10-15 mbu per week
· T-storm Weather: Eastern Australia turns wetter over next few days (rainfall of 0.75”-1.50”), slowing wheat harvest
ENERGY
· Lower: CLZ17, -$.56 @ $55.14; EBF, -$0.68 @ $61.53; EBF-QCLZ, -$0.10; RBZ, -.0261;NGZ, -.008; HOZ, -.0160
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.2 (+6.5); Gasoline, -0.9 (+2.4); Distillates, -1.3 (-2.5)
· Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Tuesday: Chicago is quoted at $1.3825, down $0.0375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ¾; Gulf, +6 ¾; Dallas, +2 ¼; Tampa, +16 ¼; and LA, +17 ¼
· Ethanol RINs steady to lower on Tue.: 2016’s unch at 83 ½-85 ½; 2017’s dn ½ at 87-87; & 2018’s fell ½ to 84-87
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading at +$.33000/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values plummeted $2.14 on Tuesday to $210.67, and are $1.97 lower compared to last week
· Pre-report estimates for Friday’s Cattle on Feed: Nov. 1 On-Feed 105.7%; Oct. Placed 107.6%; Oct. Marketed 105.4%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 64-cents on Tuesday to $81.12, and is $1.19 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.32 on Tue. to $66.68. December futures declined $2.325 & are $6.705 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com