HIGHLIGHT
· MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ: unchanged; SF: down $.0175; WZ: up $.0175; KWZ: up $.0175.
· MACRO. Stocks are seeing a modest rebound in most major markets after the recent selloff. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +1.47%; Shanghai, -0.10%; Hang Seng, +0.74%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.46%; FTSE, +0.03%; CAC, +0.59%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW, +48 S&P, +7.78; NAS, +24.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.164 @ 93.890; Gold:+$1.91 @ $1,288; Dec crude: -$0.12 @ $55.21/bl.
· T-storm Weather: In the U.S., the same story continues as numerous systems pass the next 10 to 14 days, but a lack of humidity keeps cattle and HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains dry, instead focusing rain and some snow on the Corn Belt / Delta and points east—especially Friday-Saturday. Temperatures fluctuate with a wide range through the period, and bouts of Arctic air will need be monitored with time in the Plains, but unusual temperatures are not foreseen for at least one week
· CZ, unchanged @ $3.3825; CH, unchanged @ $3.51. Funds bought 2 K on Wednesday
· SF, down $.0175 @ $9.7450; SH, down $.0125 @ $9.86. Funds: Bought 4 K SB, 1 SBM and 4 SBO
· WZ, up $.0175 @ $4.2175; WH, up $.0075 @ $4.385. The funds bought 2 K on Wednesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST. Trade expects 47-67 mbu for 17/18 corn
· ATI Research: U.S. corn harvest on avg. gains ~4% over Nov. 12-19 to 95%. Largest gain since 2009: 7% in 2014
· Consultant: In Parana, Brazil, the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) Is reporting full-season corn planting at 99% done. Dreal is rating Parana’s full-season corn crop at 11% average & 89% good, with production dn 38% vs. last year
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a swath of topsoil dryness further develops in central/northern corn areas next 7-10 days. Temps will be considerably cooler than normal through next week, limiting evaporation rate despite lack of rain
· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,054,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 10—dn 3 thou v. prior week but up 3.6% v. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 40-55 for 17/18 soybeans; 125-350 for 17/18 soymeal; and 14-40 for 17/18 soyoil
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rainfall of 2.25" to 4.50" affects soybean areas of Brazil and Paraguay over the next two weeks, maintaining normal to wet soil profiles through the end of November
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 13-20 mbu for 17/18 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall amounts of 0.75” to 1.50” impact key eastern states in Australia including New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria, slowing wheat harvest
ENERGY
· Mostly lower: CLZ17, -$.12 @ $55.21; EBF, -$0.13 @ $61.74; EBF-QCLF, -$0.03; RBZ,-.0093; NGZ, +.006; HOZ, -.0043
· A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago is quoted at $1.375, down $0.0075; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ¾; Gulf, +7 ½; Dallas, +3 ½; Tampa, +18; and LA, +17 ½
· Ethanol RINs firmed Wed.: 2016’s up 2 ½ at 85 ½-88 ½; 2017’s added 2 ½ to 87-90; & 2018’s gained 2 ½ to 86 ½-89 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading at +$.3223/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values fell 54-cents on Wednesday to $210.13, and are down $3.00 vs. a week ago
· Light to moderate cash cattle trade developed in the South on Wed. with prices at $119—down $3 to $4 vs. last week
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.54 on Wed. to $79.58, and is 19-cents lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.31 on Wed. at $66.37. December futures gained $1.15 but are $5.245 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com