HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mixed--CZ: Down $.005; SX: Up $.0225; WZ: Down $.005; KWZ: Down $.025
· MACRO: A firmer trend is evident in world markets after the Fed on Wednesday elected to leave interest rates unchanged. Bias for the moment is the next increase will occur in December. ASIA: Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday; Shanghai, +0.5%; Hang Seng, +0.39%. EUROPE: Higher, FTSE, +1.36%; DAX, +2.30%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets on higher—DOW Futures, +53; S&P, +5.80; NAS, +15.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.490 @ 95.175; Gold, +$6.72 @ $1,333.62; Nov Crude, +$.48 @ $45.82/barrel.
· T-Storm Weather: Several waves of energy trigger heavy thunderstorms and significant rainfall within the northern half of the U.S. Corn Belt through Friday. Highest totals in Minnesota-Wisconsin through Friday, although the axis of heavy rainfall is shifted slightly further to the south, which includes slightly more corn and soybeans than previously. In contrast, dry and unusually warm weather continue the next several days across the southeast third to half of the central U.S. with maximums in the 80s-90s
· Corn: CZ Down $.005 @ $3.3950; CH Down $.005 @ $3.495. Fund selling totaled 1 K on Wednesday
· SB: SX Up $.0225 @ $9.7775; SF Up $.02 @ $9.83 Funds: Sold 5 SB, 3 SBO; 3 SBM.
· Wheat: WZ Down $.005 @ $4.0725; WH Down $.00250 @ $4.29. The funds again bought 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT. Trade expects 28-35 for 16/17 corn
· T-storm Weather: In the central and southern U.S. Plains, dry and very warm to hot weather accelerate corn harvesting into Saturday. Changes occur Saturday-Mondaywhen unseasonably heavy rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” occurs
· ATI Research: 5-year avg. shows additional 16% of U.S. corn reaches maturity Sep. 18-Sep. 25; would put ‘16 at 69%
· Consultant: Full-season corn planting in southern Brazil off to relatively good start; approx. 10-15% done v. 10% avg.
· Ethanol grind: 981,000 barrels/day for week end Sep. 16—down 2.3% vs. last week but 4.6% higher vs. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 33-44 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 10-50 K MT for old- crop and 50-150 new-crop; soyoil, 5-20 K MT for old crop and 0-30 for new-crop
· T-storm Weather: The large upper-level system responsible for heavy rain across U.S. soybeans in the northern half of the U.S. Corn Belt either passes or spins-out fromSep. 29-Oct. 2, likely resulting in a seasonably drier pattern
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 16/17 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Eastern Australia wheat is mainly dry next 5 days, but some unneeded light rains return next week. Dry weather for Argentina wheat over the next week; rain would be ideal as recent totals were slightly below-average
ENERGY
· Higher: CLX16, +$.48, $45.82; EBX,+$0.38; EBX-CLX, $1.42, -$.07; RBX, +.0071; NGX, +.014; HOX, +$.0088
· A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago up 1 ¾; New York gained 4; Gulf added 1 ½; Dallas increased 1 ¼; Tampa climbed 2 ¾; and LA was 3 ¼ higher at $1.69 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs unchanged to lower: 2014’s unch at 87-87 ½; 2015’s down 1/8 at 87-87 ½; & 2016’s off 1/8 at 86 ¾-87 ¼
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse is 0.0294 weaker at $.0402 to -.11040/gallon on Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values rose $1.67 Wed. to $187.17—largest one-day gain sinceJune 9—& are up $1.37 v. last week
· Wednesday’s week-to-week increase in choice boxed beef values was the first sinceAug. 17
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $2.53 on Wed. to $78.03— largest one-day decline since July 28
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.65 on Wed. at $60.96. October futures $1.125 lower and are $6.535 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com