HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: mixed--CZ: down $.0125 SF: up $.0050; WZ: down $.0225; KWZ: up $.0025
· MACRO: Higher basic commodity prices has the market in an upbeat mood; with the Trump election lifting equity markets: ASIA: Higher: Nikkei, +0.31%; Hang Seng, +1.43%; Shanghai, +0.98%. EUROPE: Higher: FTSE, +0.98%; DAX, +0.52%; CAC, +0.69%. Wall STREET: Pre-markets are definitely positive: DOW futures, +50; S&P, +6.00; NASDAQ, +20.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.173 @ 100.950; Gold, +$6.90 $1,216.80; Dec Crude, +$0.18 @ $48.42
· T-storm Weather: Dry weather prevails from Argentina through southern Brazil into the weekend, aiding planting but increasing dryness for soybeans (and vegetative corn) because much of each region received minimal rail over the last two weeks. Changes occur in Argentina this weekend, and southern Brazil and Paraguay early next week when a strong system generates 1.00" to 2.00" of rain. To the north, several cool fronts trigger several heavy thunderstorms in northern areas of Brazil through 10 days
· Corn: CZ down $.0125 @ $3.4850; CH down $.0150 @ $3.5625 . The funds bought 10 K to begin the week
· SB: SF up $.0050 @ $10.2075; SH up $.0050 @ $10.29. F unds—bot 12 SB, 7 SBO, 9 SBM. Board Crush: $.72+.01; LY, $.72
· Wheat: WZ down $.0225 @ $4.08; WH down $.0125 @ $4.2575. The funds began the week buying 4 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2016 corn futures on Monday closed at $3.49 ¾, up $0.14 (4.2%) from the low posted on Nov. 15
· USDA pegs corn harvest at 97% vs. 97% last year & avg. of 96%. Sorghum harvest at 94% v. 93% last year & 92% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.680 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu
· Consultant: There is starting to be some concern for full-season corn in Brazil due to dry weather in southern growing areas where the majority of the full-season crop is planted
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Meteorologists in Brazil are telling farmers in southern Brazil not to expect yields as good as the last 3-4 years due to erratic weather and periods of dryness
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 493 mbu
· T-storm Weather: A round of rain would be ideal to maintain soil moisture for vegetative soybeans in southern Brazil
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 205 mbu compared to 272 last year
· T-storm Weather: In the central U.S., a colder and stormier pattern assembles through next week, ultimately leading to at least near-normal rainfall across the drought-stricken SRW wheat belt. Drier to the west for HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Higher: CLF16, +$.18 @ $48.42; EBF, +$0.22; EBF-CLF, $0.69, +$0.04; RBZ, +$.0164; NGZ, -$.021; HOZ, +$.0117
· A firmer trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago up 3 1/8 New York and Dallas added 2 ½; Gulf gained 3; Tampa increased 1 ½; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.77 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2015’s up 1 ¾ to 85-87; 2016’s added 1 ¾ to 85-87; and 2017’s firmed 1 ¾ to 84 ¾-86 ¾
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol inverse gave up 2 ¼ cents on Monday and settled at -$0.20450/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY     ;
· Choice boxed beef soared $2.73 on Monday (largest one-day gain since May 17) and is $1.76 higher vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $4.21 v. last week to $107.91/cwt, but is $16.92 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 15-cents on Mon. to $72.76, but is still $1.46 lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.27 on Mon. to $47.72. December futures up $1.975 and are $2.055 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather